Top House Targets in 2010

[Mr.Phips]

I dont think Himes in CT-04, Heinrich in NM-01 or Driehaus in OH-01 will be in much trouble.  These districts are the kind that if when they fall to Democrats, they likely are not going back.  Same with NV-03, since Republicans pretty much got their bench wiped out there.  Same with NC-08.  In PA-11, if Barletta could not take down Kanjorski I dont see who can. 

[Mr.Phips]

Look, unless Obama's approvals are sky-high (I'll say above 65%) come Election Day in 2010, any Democrat south of the Mason-Dixon line not in a black-majority district or an affluent district should effectively start campaigning now.  Yes now.

her here nor there...

You should change that to any Democrat south of the Mason-Dixon line in a district Obama did not carry. 

[Mr.Phips]

Look, unless Obama's approvals are sky-high (I'll say above 65%) come Election Day in 2010, any Democrat south of the Mason-Dixon line not in a black-majority district or an affluent district should effectively start campaigning now.  Yes now.

her here nor there...

You should change that to any Democrat south of the Mason-Dixon line in a district Obama did not carry. 

I'm pretty sure the only districts Obama carried in the south are either black-majority or affluent.

I know NC-08 was carried by Obama.  As was VA-02, VA-11, and FL-08. 

[Mr.Phips]

However, we must always remember that just because people appear safe now does not mean they will be safe in the future.

Very true; we only need to look at how plenty of Republicans who were "safe" in 2002 and 2004 lost in 2006 or last week. Or at 1994. Still, I think you can generally see certain signs of possible vulnerability under the surface (beyond "Presidential candidate x did badly there" and so on), though the way House elections work can make it harder than it might otherwise be.

[

The seats Democrats lost in 1994 were never very safe.  20 of the seats they lost were open seats and another 16 were freshman that were elected narrowly in 1992.  There were only a few Democrats that had been "safe" in earlier years that lost in 1994(Smith in IA-04, Price in NC-04, Bilbray in NV-01, and Brooks in TX-09 were the only "safe" seats the Democrats lost in 1994). 

[Mr.Phips]

Until the PA Democratic party gets serious about winning PA-06, Gerlach is in no danger.
Gerlach's margin of victory for the past 4 elections:
2002: +2.8 (51.4-48.6)
2004: +2.0 (51.0-49.0)
2006: +1.2 (50.6-49.4)
2008: +4.2 (52.1-47.9)

Serious question:
How does redistricting work?  Do they redistrict BEFORE the elections every decade?  or does it not happen until the election 2 years after the census?
In other words, in the case of PA (which is expected to lose 1ECV in 2010 due to the census) will there be 19 house elections in 2010 or will there be 18 house elections in 2010?

If there will be 19, which means PA-06 will still exist as it is currently for all intents and purposes, and if that is the case, they really REALLY need to get a serious candidate to run against Gerlach.

Bob Roggio was a junko candidate who had no political experience and garnered little money from donors.  In an election where there was a democratic wave, and in an election where the house district resided almost entirely in counties which went overwhelmingly to Obama (Montgomery+20, Berks+10, Chester+9) it frankly is quite embarrassing for the PA Democratic party that he lost.  It really is...

Lois Murphy was no better either.  2006 was a bigger democratic wave and yet she lost by 1.2%.

The PA Democratic party needs to look for a serious democratic challenger in the district and they need to get the ball rolling on spreading his name.  Bob Roggio only started campaigning after he won the primary in April.  They need a name...a big name.  And frankly I have no clue who it would be.  But until they do, PA-06 will not be a target unfortunately.  Bob Roggio was a last minute candidate who, yes, was endorsed by Obama, but was barely supported by the DSCC (compare this to Tinklenberg in MN-06 against Michelle Bachmann).  I think that the DSCC would have been better quipped to spend heavily in PA-06 which is actually rated a D+2 PVI where as MN-06 is rated a R+5 PVI.


edit:
If you haven't already realized, I vote in PA-06.

Yeah, I always thought Democrats should go in here at the last minute rather than spending in districts like MN-06 and SC-01.  I know Gerlach will probably never win by more than a few points and this would be a district that Democrats would not have to worry about spending a lot to defend.