Opinion of the "Age Wave"

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's not so much age that's the best predictor of political tendencies, but life situation.  This typically makes more sense: the simple act of turning 30 is unlikely to change your wants and desires, but getting married or starting a family often does.  Ditto with the transition from renting to home ownership. Or the first "big promotion" to a well-paying job.  Most of this stuff often happens towards the end of that age range, and accounts for a good part of why 29 makes a good end-off point for the youngest demographic.

Perhaps there's no causation, but I'll make the note that the states with the lowest median age for marriage tend to be the strongest Republican states and the states where even the 18-29 age brackets vote McCain.  Idaho males get married sooner than their counterparts in the other 49; ID's 18-29 bracket went 56-41% for McCain. Utah females get married sooner than their counterparts; the 18-29 demo in Utah went 62-33% for McCain.

Things like taxes and national security become more important.  Government spending becomes less attractive because that money is finally coming out of your pocket.  Life's real problems tend to crowd out the kind of idealistic view of the world that often pushes the youngest of the 18-29 set toward the Democratic Party.

Further, it's important to understand that the political inclination of those hitting the magical 18 has a lot to do the world around them when they reach voting age.  Bush isn't there to antagonize their sensibilities, and Obama doesn't have the same magic post-election. After all, don't you get more enthusiastic about Christmas on December 24 than on December 26, even though they're both equally spaced from Christmas Day?