Looking at the states Obama is popular- CT,DE,and IL. CT is similar to the 2009 NJ Governors Race- the Democratic incumbent- Chris Dodd is highly unpopular ie Corzine and the Republican nominee- Rob Simmons-is a moderate Republican ie Christie. If Dodd wins- it will be due to Barack Obama's help. If Dodd loses- it will due to the issues facing Dodd. In DE- Beau Biden-D is a household name in DE. He is a much stronger candidate than Mike Castle-R who is unpopular with the Teabagger wing of the Republican party who will stay home in the General election. In IL- Giannoulias is a generic Democratic candidate and Mark Kirk is moving to the right which will hurt him in the general.
Regarding PA,NV,AR,and CO. Lincoln(AR) will have rely on Mike Beebe's coattails and rely on local issues. Make this race between the AR Democratic Party vs the National Republican Party. In PA Democrats will have to portray Toomey as a nutcase.
And by the time they get around to that it may be too late. Toomey has been doing an excellent job at moving to the center and the fact that there is another even more conservative candidate in running helps him do that.
Toomey isn't my favorite in the world, but take it from someone who lived in his district: He certainly does not come across as a nutcase. Santorum, that guy was a nutcase. Toomey is a well spoken
fiscal conservative with mainline social conservative cred who easily picked up and held a Democratic swing district.
