NJ-03: GQR: Adler leads big in internal poll

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

LOL at GQR.  Anyone want to point out the fundamental problem with this poll?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

We have a winner!

This tea partier will be buried so deep on the ballot that not even earthworms will be able to find him. His share of the vote is guaranteed under 5%, and probably under 3.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

New Jersey gets the shaft come redistricting, and unless there's a retirement up north (Pascrell, maybe?), NJ-03 would probably get the axe. It's going to be an independent commission map, and ganking Adler (or Runyan) is the "fairest" thing to do.

Nothing personal against Adler, it's just that he hasn't been around long enough. Best case scenario for him is an inc vs. inc fight that leans against him. He'd need a D+10 to survive, and you just can't do that there without cannibalizing the Andrews seat, making Rush Holt vulnerable, or turning the LoBiondo seat into a safe R.

It's a real ... tough redraw for Adler.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If you were drawing a map blind, Lance, Holt, and Pallone would all be in trouble. But Pallone and Holt both have deep seniority, and Lance is extremely well-liked by state Democrats and probably the last Republican of the five they'd want to see let go.