New Tradesports rankings

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

That's what I'm suggesting.

How high will McCain's stock go if he wins in FL? If it's still below 65, I'd make a heavy bet in his favor.

My favorite play here is buying McCain to win the Presidency.  You can get in cheap, usually under 20.  In a Clinton/McCain race, I think McCain has a better than 40% shot at winning.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

McCain will be up for the next two days and possibly drop. 

Begin to think about McCain in the general.

Betting on McCain in the general would be wise once you've soaked up all of the value in McCain for the nomination.

Essentially, it's the same bet.  They'll move largely in tandem, percentage wise.

I picked up McCain to be President at 19 rather than picking up McCain to win the nomination at 50+ a few days back.  I did this because I thought (1) McCain to win the nomination was undervalued and (2) He'd stand a better than 30%~ chance to win the Presidency if he was the nominee.

It's been a great play.  Up 50%.  Wish I had gotten more shares of it.

Meanwhile, Giuliani to win NJ and PA have both crashed down to about 1-2 a piece.  Thanks to the kindly fellow here who pointed out that shorting Giuliani to win Pennsylvania would be a great play.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Time to buy him to win the election. He should really be at least 40 on that market.

Definitely!

Way ahead of you.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's just an insanely close 3-way race in winning individual:

Clinton 33.1
McCain 32.6
Obama 30.6
Romney 2.1

The idea that McCain has a mere 32.6% chance to win the Presidency is ridonkculous.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Wow.  Clinton under 50.

[miscellaneous bull graphic here]

In the words of Jim Cramer, back up the truck.

[miscellaneous sound effect here]

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Huge surge for Obama in Dem. nomination market:

Obama 60.2
Clinton 38.0

And, of course, it's all gone now.

Clinton 58.9
Obama 40.0

I'd like to thank the Obama folks for making it possible to pick up some more Clinton on the cheap tonight.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Shouldn't be too much of a surprise, but:

GOP NOMINATION
McCain  95.3 (+8.3)
Romney  3.4 (-5.6)
Huckabee 2.2 (+1.2)

DEM NOMINATION
Clinton 64.0 (+10.0)
Obama 36.0 (-10.0)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Give it another 1-2 weeks and buy Clinton.

Yeah, if you're still rooting for Clinton in a week, and have the money to spare, you should send it to her.

What possibly makes you think I'm "rooting" for Clinton.  I think, at this point, she's going to win the nomination. 

Those later primaries favor her and she's staying in.  The time where Obama could have knocked her out has passed.

Another major problem for Obama are the Superdelegates, which by and large support the establishment candidate Clinton.

Oh, and if Democrats think they can get away with having a down-to-the-wire race without including Florida and Michigan's opinions in any way, they're nuts.  They probably wouldn't have won Florida anyway, but they shouldn't be trying to give McCain any more of an edge in Michigan than he might already have, lest they risk losing the state.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Edwards 0.1 (LOL)
Thompson 0.1 (C'mon)

You can't sell a share for $0, so 0.1 is as low as it gets.

well, they still have a bid.

It's called short covering.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Intraders have very little faith in Clinton.  Dem. nomination:

Obama 71.0
Clinton 29.2

That's excessive.  It'll only get worse after she loses tomorrow (yay irrational markets), so hold off on buying Clinton until Wednesday at least.

Yes, Intrade loves overreacting.  I dumped my shares of Clinton already, and I'm waiting to buy some back after the crash.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I tried selling off all my Clinton this afternoon, plus short another ten.

I got rid of all the Clinton at 28.3, but I was only able to short three more.

It should be safe to say that Clinton is done at this point.  I'd short her even more at this point—I wouldn't go TOO wild, since there's still a chance she could pull it out (she's a Clinton, after all), but the smart money now is on Obama/McCain.

A fair value for Hillary right now would probably be closer to 15.  I expect her to continue losing superdelegates to Obama in the coming days, and I wouldn't be surprised to see her drop Texas.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

One thing to remember about Intrade—one thing I've learned playing around with it over the last few months—is that the market is painfully inefficent.  People get a lot more emotional about a share of Obama to win the Presidency than they do over a share of Microsoft.

And the markets are surprisingly slow to react to news.  They're not liquid enough, even in the big stocks.  We all knew Hillary would lose Wisconsin.  The market knew Hillary would lose Wisconsin—Obama had a huge lead there.  In a fully liquid market, that news would have already been priced into Hillary to win the nomination.  If Hillary was a stock on the NYSE, she'd have fallen maybe one or two percent based on the strength of Obama's win.  On Intrade, she tanked 33%.

If she loses Texas, which Intrade already expects to happen, shares of her to win the nomination will plunge into the single digits.  Buy Hillary at your own peril—the short term market will eat you alive for it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Democratic Rest of Field is up to 3.6 on IEM.  odd.

Hoping for a brokered convention, I guess.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yeah, the numbers are finally back down to earth.  Time to cash out of my Obama longs / Hillary shorts and look for greener pastures...