House Membership Change in 2008?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If Linda Stender could not take down Mike Ferguson in 2006, she will not do it in 2008

Oh, I daresay more energy into the campaign may (possibly) beat Ferguson. He's supposed to have a hyper-Republican district, and yet he won by just two points.

In 2006.  I don't know where the "extra energy" will be coming from: Stender was armed to the teeth last cycle.

What the heck are Democrats going to pick up in Michigan?  And two seats out of Illinois?

I would say LoBiondo is in much more danger than Ferguson. He and Don Young are in trouble for (revealed post-2006 elections) connections with the Abramoff scandal, and LoBiondo's district is ultra-marginal.

It's a swing district, sure, but I don't think the Abramoff ties are going to stick.

And even if he's a potential target in 2008 (which I can see some reasoning behind), there's no way he's more vulnerable than Ferguson.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Depends on who runs for the Democrats in LoBiondo's district, I suppose.

If it's not Van Drew, it won't be even remotely competitive.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

You can probably guess what seats are flipping where.  I think there may be some offsetting gains in New York and Pennsylvania.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Kagen doesn't even have an opponent.  GA-12 leans strongly Democratic, ie a seat that went for John Kerry in the South.

I don't expect all seats to have a set opponent at this point: the election is still a year-and-a-half away.  I would be surprised to say the least if Kagen doesn't draw a legit challenger.

Next: GA-12 leaning strongly Democratic?  The same way that a seat that (virtually) went for George Bush in New England would lean strongly Republican?  Tell that to Nancy Johnson.

The GOP almost picked up GA-12 in 2006, when they were getting trounced everywhere else.  Besides, Republicans almost won it in 2004, and they did win it in 2002.

If that seat is "heavily Democratic," then Democrats are in more trouble than they even realize down south.  GA-12 is trending heavily Republican, and it is only a matter of time before the GOP picks it up.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think I accidentally deleted this:

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[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

After all of the "Kerry won GA-12 in 2004" arguments I'd just like to remind everyone that Georgia was redistricted between 2004 and 2006 which makes this argument pretty weak.

Kerry won GA-12 under the current lines.