Nader

[HoopsCubs]

How many people did they interview? Twenty registered voters? Get real. Polls are meaningless. Yes, Kerry was in Florida yesterday, so to get a opinion on how Floridians feel about Kerry they asked a Massachusetts Yankee who moved to Florida or as she said Flawiiida. "Wez folks in Flawiiida cant wait to get Bush outta office". Yes there you go Floridas opinion from a Yankee. lol

There are papers in Florida (Miami 5 days ago) that give Kerry a slight lead at this juncture.

I think you're just scared to admit that this race is going to be a lot closer than anyone would have thought  4 months ago.

Don't under-estimate the "anyone but Bush" phenomenon spreading across the North.  If Ohio goes Kerry's way in a nailbiter (very possible) and he gets New Hampshire too (also, very possible), Kerry can afford to lose Iowa and New Mexico (his most vulnerable states according to many experts) and still win.   Winning Florida would be nice, but if Kerry focuses in on Ohio and West Virginia and New Hampshire, he is in a very good position to eke out a victory in November.

 

[HoopsCubs]

Actually, all Kerry has to do at this point is hold his ground for the next 8 months and he wins.  Not that he can necessarily do that, but Bush has to make headway, not Kerry.

I agree with you on many things here, but I will differ on this one.  Kerry has to do more work - holding his ground does nothing for him IMO.   While President Bush may be behind in several polls, you still have to treat him as the favorite because his path is so much simpler than John Kerry's.   All Bush needs to do is win the same states he won in 2000.  Kerry has to regain 1-3 states and hold onto the the states that Gore won.  Gore won 5 of those states by a very, very slim margin.  That will take a lot of effort.  Kerry is clearly vulnerable in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Mexico (32 evs).  I think he's safe in Oregon, Michigan and Pennsylvania.   If you take the worst case that he loses the 4 vulbnerable states, he needs to make up 42 electoral votes to win.  Winning Florida and Ohio gives him 47.  Winning Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, West Virginia and New Hampshire gives him 44.  

It's a tough path!  But, I believe!

 

[HoopsCubs]

Yes, I admit, I'm scared. Not. Terrorism and Iraq alone will win Bush the election. Etch it.

Please.  Make some trips to Ohio, Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire, and ask the swing voters there what the issues are.  I guarantee most will not say terrorism or Iraq.  In fact, Iraq could be a liability for Bush in those key states.    

 

[HoopsCubs]

Yes, I admit, I'm scared. Not. Terrorism and Iraq alone will win Bush the election. Etch it.

I have yet to see any poll in the last year that says  that Iraq or Terrorism are the number one issues.

Ironically the states with the big targets (Illinois, New York and California) are all solid Kerry.


...sorry but Bush's ad wrapping himself in 9-11 only showed how out of touch he is. America is saying "what have you done for me lately". Elections are always decided on the 'are you better off?" factor.

...bottom line is, if consumer confidence and job security dont rise by November, then Bush is toast....period

Consumer Confidence is up over 90! Not even Clinton had that during his re-election campaign. I believe I am better off then I was under Clinton. My taxes are lower and I feel safer in the world because of his efforts against dictators and terrorists. Many people I know feel the same. I know of many old school FDR Democrats who are saying "I plan on giving Bush my 100% support in November." And this is from old school Democrats who supported FDR and JFK.

Do your friends happen to be older generation Americans in Ohio and West Virginia, who are struggling with job creation and health care?   If not, ask them what they think since they will in all likelihood decide the outcome.