Which Gore States Would Kerry Lose?

[HoopsCubs]

Al Gore won the following 20 states + District of Columbia:

Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, California and New Mexico in the west

Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota in the midwest

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont and Maine in the East

Of all of these, which ones would Kerry lose in your opinion?  

Thanks,
HoopsCubs

[HoopsCubs]

Wow, if he lost those 5 states, that would put him at 221 electoral votes.  Needing at least 49 for victory, that would mean Kerry would have to win Ohio (20), Florida (27) and New Hampshire (4).  Almost impossible.   A very tough road indeed.  

[HoopsCubs]

I don't see Kerry winning West Virginia.... in my mind, WV is undergoing the same shift as the rest of rural America in joinging the side of the Republicans in the culture war.    WV should be part of the new "Solid South" for the Republicans for a while.

Most Gore states are solidly Democratic, with the exception of the four out of the five "recount States" won by Gore - OR, NM, IA, and WI, along with MN (which seems to be trending Republican) and PA (which seems to be trending Democratic.)  

I predict that the Democratic nominee hangs onto OR, but loses IA, WI, and MN.  I'm still torn about NM depending on the day of the week... it would be great if it ended in a tie and the Presidency was then decided by a hand of poker.  

TheOldLine

How do you explain, then, West Virginians electing a Democrat for Governor in 2002, and re-electing both of their Democratic U.S. senators, one in 2002 and the other in 2000?

Also, Bill Clinton won WV and Louisiana with more than 50% of the popular vote in 1996.  Ross Perot did nothing to give Clinton victories in those 2 states - Dole would have lost both of those states even if Perot had not run.

I think Kerry can win WV and NH - 2 states that Gore lost in 2000.  
   

[HoopsCubs]

TheOldLine,

The points you raise are valid.  Still, let's see how the steel tariff issue plays out.  I still think the Dems can take this state back.

HoopsCubs