Which Gore States Would Kerry Lose?

[TheOldLine]

I don't see Kerry winning West Virginia.... in my mind, WV is undergoing the same shift as the rest of rural America in joinging the side of the Republicans in the culture war.    WV should be part of the new "Solid South" for the Republicans for a while.

Most Gore states are solidly Democratic, with the exception of the four out of the five "recount States" won by Gore - OR, NM, IA, and WI, along with MN (which seems to be trending Republican) and PA (which seems to be trending Democratic.)  

I predict that the Democratic nominee hangs onto OR, but loses IA, WI, and MN.  I'm still torn about NM depending on the day of the week... it would be great if it ended in a tie and the Presidency was then decided by a hand of poker.  

TheOldLine

[TheOldLine]

The key thing to remember about Governor elections is that they mean ZERO when it comes to Presidential races.

New York has had a Republican Governor since '94 and Massachusetts has had several Republican Governors in succession - both of them are Democratic locks, however.   Ditto for California, where Arnold was elected on the strength of local issues - not on any kind of shift in California's substantial Democratic majority.

The same is true for Senatorial races, where in WV's case, it has two very strong incumbents, who aren't going anywhere until they die or retire.   Nevertheless, those seats are very likely to be competitive once Byrd and Rockefeller evenutally move on.

Presidentially, however, by comparing the electoral maps for the most recent "competitive" races of 1976, 1992, 1996, and 2000 you can see a fundamental tectonic shift underway in the disposition of the "Solid South."    In 1976, Jimmy Carter perhaps had the defining "Solid South" election.    After the blowouts of the 1980's, Bill Clinton's election in the 1992 shows an electoral map in chaos.   By 1996, however, the familiar electoral map of 2000 can be seen as developing.

The trend underlying this paradigm shift is "The Culture War."   Over the last 20-30 years, the old "Yellow Dog" Democrats have been slowly changing their affiliation from Democrat to Republican.   That shift finally reached WV in 2000, where Bush won by nearly 6.5%.  

The Democratic nominee may offer token competition in WV - sort of like how Bush will offer token competition in IL, but in the end, it is nearly impossible for me  to imagine an incumbent who was elected in a close race losing a 6.5% margin.

TheOldLine