New Senate Rankings

[Rawlings]

I don't think there's a very good chance that Colorado goes Democrat.  The whirl around recent Democratic gains in Colorado don't signify a shift to the left so much as a trend away from the Republican Party seen across the country.  Moderate Democrats have beaten moderate Republicans in Colorado because the GOP brand has been miserable.  But Boulder Democrat Mark Udall is much more liberal than the state as a whole--or Gov. Ritter or Sen. Salazar--and he's facing Bob Schaffer, a well-liked conservative that is much closer to Colorado's sweet spot.

Because of the Democratic Convention being in town the media will cause a lot of commotion about this race--but it's mostly posturing.

[Rawlings]

Because of recent events, I will update this.
as of 4/16/07:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa

Likely Dem
New Jersey
Montana

Lean Dem
South Dakota

Tossup
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
New Mexico
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
Virginia
North Carolina
Oregon
Maine
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire

Lean Dem
Colorado

If you're gonna lean Oregon, Virginia, and Minnesota for the GOP then you HAVE to lean Colorado and New Hampshire the same way.  John Warner's not running in VA and that seat is going to the Democrat.  If Peter DeFazio runs in OR then Gordon Smith is toast.

On the other hand you have the incumbent Sununu who will show strongly and then a hippie running for the Dems in Colorado (not exactly a hippie state!).

I would lean VA and OR to the Dems.  NH a toss-up.  MN and CO lean Republican.

[Rawlings]

<snip>

If you're gonna lean Oregon, Virginia, and Minnesota for the GOP then you HAVE to lean Colorado and New Hampshire the same way.  John Warner's not running in VA and that seat is going to the Democrat.  If Peter DeFazio runs in OR then Gordon Smith is toast.

On the other hand you have the incumbent Sununu who will show strongly and then a hippie running for the Dems in Colorado (not exactly a hippie state!).

I would lean VA and OR to the Dems.  NH a toss-up.  MN and CO lean Republican.

I'll just say that you have some interesting ideas on politics and leave it at that.

Come on!  If you're liberal you're likely have a more hopeful view of things for the Democrats.  And if you're not your view will be more hopeful for the other team.  You're an East Coast liberal--of course you think Udall and the Democrats are in the clear!

I'm a Colorado conservative--maybe I'm looking at things a little myopically---but if you think Udall's got things wrapped up you're in for a big surprise.

And about Minnesota--how in the world do you think Al Franken--of all people--pulls it out?  He's Al Franken!  Rush Limbaugh would lose if he ran in a mostly Republican state.  There's no way Coleman loses unless a more serious Democrat jumps in.

[Rawlings]

<snip>

If you're gonna lean Oregon, Virginia, and Minnesota for the GOP then you HAVE to lean Colorado and New Hampshire the same way.  John Warner's not running in VA and that seat is going to the Democrat.  If Peter DeFazio runs in OR then Gordon Smith is toast.

On the other hand you have the incumbent Sununu who will show strongly and then a hippie running for the Dems in Colorado (not exactly a hippie state!).

I would lean VA and OR to the Dems.  NH a toss-up.  MN and CO lean Republican.

I'll just say that you have some interesting ideas on politics and leave it at that.

Come on!  If you're liberal you're likely have a more hopeful view of things for the Democrats.  And if you're not your view will be more hopeful for the other team.  You're an East Coast liberal--of course you think Udall and the Democrats are in the clear!

I'm a Colorado conservative--maybe I'm looking at things a little myopically---but if you think Udall's got things wrapped up you're in for a big surprise.

And about Minnesota--how in the world do you think Al Franken--of all people--pulls it out?  He's Al Franken!  Rush Limbaugh would lose if he ran in a mostly Republican state.  There's no way Coleman loses unless a more serious Democrat jumps in.

With the only serious Republican challenger out of the race, I think it would be absurd to label this as anything safer than a Tossup.

With MN, that I can agree with you on. But, Mike Ciresi is also running, so don't be too sure to put MN as safe.

With VA, Warner hasn't announced that he wouldn't run, so that is why I originally put this as 'Likely', but M. Warner might run, so that is why it is 'Lean'. I wouldn't put any incumbent as anything more dangerous than a tossup at this stage.

If you want to toss Colorado up I'd go with that.  Since there is no announced Republican I guess you can put it as toss-up.

Minnesota I just don't know about.  I know it's a helluva liberal state.

Can you please explain Virginia to me?  Is it still a conservative state?  Was it ever?  How would it compare to Colorado?  What will happen in '08?

[Rawlings]

I agree.

 I'd put Maine at leans republican, and Colorado at leans democrat.

 Also, I'd move Virginia to likely republican. I think John Warner will run for re-election, and Mark Warner will wait to run for Governor in 2009.

Colorado cannot possibly be anything more than a toss-up.  The state hasn't had two Democratic senators for a long time and hasn't had a liberal elected to statewide office for, oh, maybe 30 years.  Udall, being a lot more liberal than the state, has an uphill battle as it is.  He can still win--but the idea that it will be easy is just crazy.  Don't get bamboozled by one election.  The state is still a red state.  2008 will determine if it will stay that way.