Debate commission: plan for a third podium!

[defe07]

Nothing set in stone, but they are getting ready for the contingency that Johnson gets near 15%...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/debates-clinton-trump-johnson-stein-226806

Well, I must say that I've been crunching numbers and have looked at Gary's national polling numbers, 3-way and 4-way, and it comes down to the following:

If you add the margin of error of each poll to Gary's numbers, there are 8 which show him with 15% or more!

These are the following polls confirming this:

1) A 4-way CNN poll from 7/13-16 shows Gary got 13%, and the MOE is 3.5%, giving him 16.5%

2) A 3-way IBD/TPP poll from 7/29-8/24 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 3.4%, giving him 15.4%

3) A 3-way FOX News poll from 7/31-8/2 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 3%, giving him 15%

4) A 3-way CBS News poll from 7/22-24 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 4%, giving him 16%

5) A 3-way CNN poll from 7/13-16 shows Gary got 13%, and the MOE is 3.5%, giving him 16.5%

6) A 3-way CBS News poll from 7/8-12 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 3%, giving him 15%

7) A 3-way CBS News poll from 6/9-13 shows Gary got 11%, and the MOE is 4%, giving him 15%

A 3-way FOX News poll from 6/5-8 shows Gary got 12%, and the MOE is 3%, giving him 15%

Now, this is all mere speculation after one of the CPD members said there could be some wiggling room for Gary to debate. They may or may not consider the MOE from the polls if it's enough to give Gary an edge. Plus 7 of these 8 polls I just mentioned are big pollsters!

[defe07]

I have no idea if the CPD would consider the MOE if a candidate doesn't get 15% in 5 polls but they have something like over 12% in 5 polls, with MOE being 3% +/-. Does anybody know??

[defe07]

I have no idea if the CPD would consider the MOE if a candidate doesn't get 15% in 5 polls but they have something like over 12% in 5 polls, with MOE being 3% +/-. Does anybody know??

They will be using an average of the last five polls from a specific set of pollsters in the weeks before the debate. So it isn't about getting close to 15% in any poll at any time, but specific polls at a specific time. A person from the CPD indicated that if he was at 14.5% they might consider letting him in.  The polls they will average are probably ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox and CNN. Right now he is averaging around 9-10% in those polls.

It is possible he could surge and so it is prudent for them to plan ahead for a potential 3 podium stage. However, right now he is still not really 'close'.

OK, so let me see if I got this. In order for Johnson to make the debate, he'd need to average 15% in polls from, let's say, CNN, Fox, NBC, CBS and Bloomberg? If he can't average 15% in those five pollsters, he's toast then?

[defe07]

Fahrenkopf (the chairman of the commission) has suggested that coming within the margin of error might be sufficient for Johnson, though who knows how much control he actually exercises over the commission.

I read that, But, considering that the MOE is usually 3%, would the CPD give Johnson a pass if he's polling at, say, 12.5% average in the CNN, CBS, NBC, Fox and Bloomberg polls, for example?