Democratic Ides of March Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[Likely Voter]

Here are the PredictIt betting prices. Clinton big favorite to win FL and NC and smaller favorite in OH. Bernie is favorite in MO odds are close to even


FL
Clinton   95¢       
Sanders   5¢       

NC
Clinton   91¢       
Sanders   9¢       

OH
Clinton   62¢       
Sanders   38¢       

IL
Clinton   57¢       
Sanders   47¢       

MO
Sanders   66¢       
Clinton   36¢       

[Likely Voter]

If whites and blacks vote in OH the same way they voted in MI, Bernie will win OH.

[Likely Voter]

The continue Obama policy tracks closely to the Hillary number but she usually outperforms it by a few %, however in MI she under-performed it.

[Likely Voter]

PredictIt is swinging around with every exit but Sanders has moved into the 70s in MO and is now the favorite in IL in the 60s. OH is 50/50

[Likely Voter]

Maybe too long ago for some but hearing all these Florida county names being talked about on CNN is giving me 2000 flashbacks. 

[Likely Voter]

Florida exit poll:
whites: Clinton +7
blacks: Clinton +56
Latinos: Clinton +38

Illinois exit poll:
whites: Sanders +20
blacks: Clinton +39
Latinos: Sanders +7

Missouri exit poll:
whites: Sanders +15
blacks: Clinton +39

Holy Illinois Latinos!

Only 1% of exit is Latino, I am surprised they even put out a number with a sample that small. Maybe this is akin to NV where they need to look at the precincts. 

 

[Likely Voter]

Florida exit poll:
whites: Clinton +7
blacks: Clinton +56
Latinos: Clinton +38

Illinois exit poll:
whites: Sanders +20
blacks: Clinton +39
Latinos: Sanders +7

Missouri exit poll:
whites: Sanders +15
blacks: Clinton +39

Holy Illinois Latinos!

Only 1% of exit is Latino, I am surprised they even put out a number with a sample that small.

Look at it again.  It's 8%, not 1%.

i really should stop paying attention to the first round of exits!

[Likely Voter]

After MI I think a lot of people were mentally 'unskewing' polls from MO, OH and IL and adding points to Bernie, but the pollsters themselves adjusted their models after MI, which is why the polls tightened over the last week so much.   That being said, Sanders is still in the game for MO and IL.

[Likely Voter]

The Upshot model has Clinton winning by 0.3

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/15/upshot/live-model-democratic-primary-results.html

Up until about 10 minutes ago it had been showing a Sanders win almost all night, but it kept narrowing