Debate commission: plan for a third podium!

[Likely Voter]

I have no idea if the CPD would consider the MOE if a candidate doesn't get 15% in 5 polls but they have something like over 12% in 5 polls, with MOE being 3% +/-. Does anybody know??

They will be using an average of the last five polls from a specific set of pollsters in the weeks before the debate. So it isn't about getting close to 15% in any poll at any time, but specific polls at a specific time. A person from the CPD indicated that if he was at 14.5% they might consider letting him in.  The polls they will average are probably ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox and CNN. Right now he is averaging around 9-10% in those polls.

It is possible he could surge and so it is prudent for them to plan ahead for a potential 3 podium stage. However, right now he is still not really 'close'.

[Likely Voter]

I have no idea if the CPD would consider the MOE if a candidate doesn't get 15% in 5 polls but they have something like over 12% in 5 polls, with MOE being 3% +/-. Does anybody know??

They will be using an average of the last five polls from a specific set of pollsters in the weeks before the debate. So it isn't about getting close to 15% in any poll at any time, but specific polls at a specific time. A person from the CPD indicated that if he was at 14.5% they might consider letting him in.  The polls they will average are probably ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox and CNN. Right now he is averaging around 9-10% in those polls.

It is possible he could surge and so it is prudent for them to plan ahead for a potential 3 podium stage. However, right now he is still not really 'close'.

OK, so let me see if I got this. In order for Johnson to make the debate, he'd need to average 15% in polls from, let's say, CNN, Fox, NBC, CBS and Bloomberg? If he can't average 15% in those five pollsters, he's toast then?

Essentially yes. The five pollsters they used in 2012 were ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Gallup.  This year I suspect they will use the same list with CNN swapped in for Gallup who are not doing horserace polling for the election

[Likely Voter]

I am just guessing.  But I suspect they will want frequent pollsters and pew is very periodic.  But for sure they will go with live phone polls.  They may lean to only polls doing 4-way polling which (for now) would exclude FOX and CBS who are only doing 3-way.  Other 4-way pollsters include Monmouth, Marist and Bloomberg.  We probably won't know until September