Is the 272 freiwal for reals?

[Likely Voter]

It could be argued that Obama didn't have a 'firewall' in 2012, or at least not the one we thought, mainly because it turned out OH was leaning more R than the national avg. If Romney pulled to a small PV win, he would have won FL, OH, VA and almost certainly also CO. And he probably would have lost NV and NH (which people didn't think were in Obama's 'firewall'). 

So are there a set of 270EV+ states Clinton would hold in a Trump +0.1 or even Trump +0.5 PV situation?  It would not surprise me if any of NH, WI, PA, CO or VA went for Trump in that situation. But I also wouldn't be surprised if FL, NC, or NV went to Clinton at the same time.  Polls are close to accurate in general, but when it comes to a race that is close to a PV tie, there are a lot of states that aren't safely behind a wall.