Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Likely Voter]

It is a very good show for Sen. Obama, but he can thank the Stock Market for his bump in the polls.

Is that any different than the crisis in Georgia, which helped McCain?

Just proves that the real world can some time intervene into a campaign

[Likely Voter]

FWIW, this is the first time all year at which point all three useful tracking polls agreed with each other exactly on the margin.

There may be something to that. Also one issue that must be of concern to McCain is that the number of undecideds seems to be dropping. People are solidifying. After two conventions and one debate...McCain needs something big to turn this thing around. I am surprised he hasn't thrown another hail mary this week...he needs something or he is going to lose big. His only consistent lead since the end of the Primaries was after his convention when he had total control of the airwaves for a week (starting with the Palin pick).

[Likely Voter]

is it time to talk about the 'Biden Bump' it appears that ever tracking poll has moved towards Obama 1 point since the debate day.

[Likely Voter]

Maybe someone should do a new post with a daily summary of all the tracking polls with the differences from the previous day?

[Likely Voter]

I just saw how Gallup is now talking about two different likely voter models

One based on 60% turnout and traditional metrics, one base on voter intent

Obama's lead is 7 in the first model and 10 in the second. It is a good guess that the first model is cutting out young voters who say they are sure they will vote for Obama, but the traditional model ignores them since youth tend to not show up.

I think as we get closer to election day the big dif between the various polling companies will be how they treat young likely voters.

[Likely Voter]

Crikey. Must have been a big Obama night.

Weekend number have tended to go up for Obama on Gallup.  I'm looking for trending in the tracking polls.

I think it is clear that there was no post debate bounce for Obama, and possibly some slight tightening. 

What is your data to back that up?

RCP averages
Sept 26 (1st Pres. debate): Obama +4.2
October 2 (VP debate): Obama +5.7
October 7 (2nd Pres. debate): Obama +5.5
Today: Obama +7.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

same pattern at Pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

[Likely Voter]

Crikey. Must have been a big Obama night.

Weekend number have tended to go up for Obama on Gallup.  I'm looking for trending in the tracking polls.

I think it is clear that there was no post debate bounce for Obama, and possibly some slight tightening. 

What is your data to back that up?

RCP averages
Sept 26 (1st Pres. debate): Obama +4.2
October 2 (VP debate): Obama +5.7
October 7 (2nd Pres. debate): Obama +5.5
Today: Obama +7.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

same pattern at Pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

So far, today, only Gallup showed a real gain after the debate, almost immediately, then static, then four days of losses until today.  Any bounce should have built, not popped in on the Tuesday (pre debate) or Wednesday sample.

so you just ignore that his average lead is greater today that it was the day of the debate? OK

[Likely Voter]

Crikey. Must have been a big Obama night.

Weekend number have tended to go up for Obama on Gallup.  I'm looking for trending in the tracking polls.

I think it is clear that there was no post debate bounce for Obama, and possibly some slight tightening. 

What is your data to back that up?

RCP averages
Sept 26 (1st Pres. debate): Obama +4.2
October 2 (VP debate): Obama +5.7
October 7 (2nd Pres. debate): Obama +5.5
Today: Obama +7.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

same pattern at Pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

So far, today, only Gallup showed a real gain after the debate, almost immediately, then static, then four days of losses until today.  Any bounce should have built, not popped in on the Tuesday (pre debate) or Wednesday sample.

so you just ignore that his average lead is greater today that it was the day of the debate? OK

We were discussing a debate "bounce." 

Gallup October 7th:  52/41  (from today, -1, nc)

Rasmussen October 7th:  52/44 (from today, -2, +1)

Now, please explain this "bounce" thing again?

well that is actually the wrong data for Gallup...it was Obama 51%, McCain 42%

Looking at all the tracking polls from debate 2 day to today you get the following.
Gallup: +9 / +10 (+1)
Rasmussen: + 8 / +5 (-3)
Hotline: +2 / +6 (+4)
Research 2000: +11 / +12 (+1)

So the average of all polls has Obama going up a couple points and three out of four tracking polls has him going up.  I am sorry but looking at all the data (as of now) it does not support your 'it has narrowed' theory. Maybe it will narrow tomorrow or later, but as of now it has not.

[Likely Voter]

Looking at all the tracking polls from debate 2 day to today you get the following.
Gallup: +9 / +10 (+1)
Rasmussen: + 8 / +5 (-3)
Hotline: +2 / +6 (+4)
Research 2000: +11 / +12 (+1)

So the average of all polls has Obama going up a couple points and three out of four tracking polls has him going up.  I am sorry but looking at all the data (as of now) it does not support your 'it has narrowed' theory. Maybe it will narrow tomorrow or later, but as of now it has not.

Sorry, I was looking at the Gallup for the day before.  Hotline had a bad sample in it at that point (it was a pro-McCain sample dropping off; he had a +3 point gain) and Koz is hopelessly skewed.  Zogby shows about a point drop, but not after the debate, but it of course is Zogby.

So basically, no bounce, though there was enlarging of the lead in Gallup (that wasn't matched elsewhere).

yes if you can pick and choose what data to pay attention to, then yes your world view is easier to support

[Likely Voter]

From what I can tell it is the McCain supporters who are talking about an unpolled group, or the racists within their hoped for Bradley effect. The 'new voters' and 'young voters' seem to be showing up now in Gallups 'expanded' likely voter model.

[Likely Voter]

if the race tightens more, it will start showing competing leaders...depending on which LV model.

So this election will be all about turnout and if the new voters, the african american voters and the young voters really do show up or not.