Era of the New Majority

[Person Man]

Its really good so far.... really depressing, though.

[Person Man]

My only nitpick is that Portman is known to be a strong debator. In Double Down, he was cited as Romney's debate coach and played Obama very well. In fact, the book said he was one of the strongest debators in Congress IIRC.

Even really good debaters sometimes drop the ball.

[Person Man]

My only nitpick is that Portman is known to be a strong debator. In Double Down, he was cited as Romney's debate coach and played Obama very well. In fact, the book said he was one of the strongest debators in Congress IIRC.

Even really good debaters sometimes drop the ball.

See: First Presidential Debate, Barack Obama's performance

@KingSweden - I love the insane amount of work you've put into this timeline. It's really well done all around. Keep it up!

(though I must say this Cruz-Portman ticket makes me want to cry)

I can see this all happening. In general, it's pretty good detail. A few months a post a post about once a day. It looks like Hillary will do reasonably well as Obama has left this country firmly breaking even in fortune as civilization in the rest of the continues to steadily decline after failing to fully recover from the last major melt down.

[Person Man]

United States elections, 2016

Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island

Presidential: All three states are easily won by Hillary Clinton, with Massachusetts giving over 60% of its vote to her, Connecticut and Rhode Island going 58% and 55%, respectively. Cruz is cited as being an especially poor fit for MA's voters.

CT Senator: Richard Blumenthal is easily reelected, defeating State Rep. Larry Cafero, the incumbent House Minority Leader. Blumenthal takes 69% of the vote, a significantly higher share than in his first election campaign.

US House: All representatives from Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island are easily reelected, although David Cicilline has a tough runoff against former Providence Mayor Angel Taveras.

State Houses: Democratic majorities are expanded in all six houses of the state assemblies of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island as top-ticket candidates roll to easy wins.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 32
Cruz/Portman: 0

58 and 57?

[Person Man]

United States elections, 2016

Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island

Presidential: All three states are easily won by Hillary Clinton, with Massachusetts giving over 60% of its vote to her, Connecticut and Rhode Island going 58% and 55%, respectively. Cruz is cited as being an especially poor fit for MA's voters.

CT Senator: Richard Blumenthal is easily reelected, defeating State Rep. Larry Cafero, the incumbent House Minority Leader. Blumenthal takes 69% of the vote, a significantly higher share than in his first election campaign.

US House: All representatives from Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island are easily reelected, although David Cicilline has a tough runoff against former Providence Mayor Angel Taveras.

State Houses: Democratic majorities are expanded in all six houses of the state assemblies of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island as top-ticket candidates roll to easy wins.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 32
Cruz/Portman: 0

58 and 55?

That's kind of low for RI...CT sounds high ish though.

[Person Man]

Call me stubborn, but even in a Clinton landslide, I doubt she would be having these coattails like Obama did in 2008. I think instead many votes for Clinton would not be for her but votes against Cruz meaning people would vote straight Republican for other offices but Clinton for president because Cruz is the nominee. But then again, I can be wrong. But otherwise, great timeline!

Its very difficult to win an election because you are not the person you are running against. With straight tickets becoming more and more universal, you could win big in one election, and lose the next.

[Person Man]

Call me stubborn, but even in a Clinton landslide, I doubt she would be having these coattails like Obama did in 2008. I think instead many votes for Clinton would not be for her but votes against Cruz meaning people would vote straight Republican for other offices but Clinton for president because Cruz is the nominee. But then again, I can be wrong. But otherwise, great timeline!

Its very difficult to win an election because you are not the person you are running against. With straight tickets becoming more and more universal, you could win big in one election, and lose the next.

True. But some states (especially those with a ton of independent voters) have a lot of ticket splitters, such as Minnesota (remember, Klobuchar and Pawlenty both won by wide margins in 2006) and Wisconsin (Walker survived the recall the same year Obama carried the state and Baldwin was elected to the Senate). So I find it doubtful that even in a Clinton landslide, Paulsen would lose (Kline I can see losing though) or MN-07 going for a Democrat that's not named Collin Petersen (it is a R+5 district).

Maybe. Maybe not. Though maybe there are in still many Gypsy Moth Republicans in places like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and especially in Colorado and Nevada who still say they are Republican but voted for Obama twice and would probably do so again. These are the types that pushed the likes of Walker, Ryan, Gardner, Snyder and Coffman over the line but also Hickenlooper, Dayton, Bennett and Franken. I think they are very similar to some lingering Dixiecrats that still sent Democrats to congress as recently as 2008, but started to vote Republican on the top of the ticket since Reagan. Then again, the difference between Walker and Obama was about 10% and when you factor in turnout differences, it would probably be like 5%..and there's a 50/50 shot that it would be enough to save people during a wave.

[Person Man]

Did you do Florida, yet? Will be really neat to see what happens in Arizona and Nevada.

[Person Man]

Just a small nitpick with NM. In 2008 Obama won it 57/42 and McCain still won NM-02 50/49, so it would probably take something like 59/39 for Clinton/Heinrich to carry all 3 CD's.

Yeah. I would say that Clinton would get to like 58% with Heinrich in a 6 or 7-point national victory.

[Person Man]

Things just might be that polarized.