Still Hillary, though it'll be closer than it needs to be.
I stated this on AAD and it's been said here on Atlas I'm sure but I feel like a close Hillary win might be even worse for the country than a Trump win. Trumpism won't be discredited, they'll be enthused and more aggressive, and I'm pretty sure Trump will be a terrible President no matter what so that'll calm down all the Trumpies after 2020.
Yes, I'm increasingly convinced now that whichever party wins this election will be shut out of the federal government for a generation after 2020. They are both that bad.
Lol, calm down.
It's not as if that hasn't happened before. Then again, just before 9/11, it looked like Democrats were making a comeback though it seemed that they grossly under-performed in 2000 despite retaking the Senate. But after 9/11, it looked like Democrats would be locked out of the Government for a generation and it looked that way for five years straight. After the Housing Market it looked like Republicans would be locked out for a generation, but they steadily recovered. I would say it would immediately look very bad for who loses.
If Clinton wins, it will tell Republicans that they have already been locked out of the Presidency for nearly a generation and that they can't run a good candidate because they run on either deviant or old platforms. However, they will still have most of the power down ballot and can afford to wait until they have someone who is both conservative and not boring. So nothing changes if Clinton wins.
If Trump wins, this would be JJ's "deluge" he has been warning about for the last 10 years. It will probably mean that Democrats are now the insurgent party pretty much everywhere. It will also mean that Democrats have run possibly the worst campaign against the worst candidate possibly ever, definitely since WWII and probably since Reconstruction. They will basically have to start over. This is kind of where Republicans were in 2009.
After that, all depends on what the next steps are with the economy and what we do with Syria, Libya, Iran, China, North Korea and Russia. Obama has stabilized the economy, but it's very conservative. That could be because technology that grows productivity is very conservative right now. The world is more unstable but arguable American influence has expanded into some places that were resisting it but haven't been able to capitalize on it as much as we could.
If things stay roughly the same if Trump wins, there will probably be a minor recession and he will probably lose the house and narrowly keep the senate, but reelected but lose the Senate in 2022.
If he as bad as people say he is going to be, he is going to be a one-term pony provided Democrats can form a party without old DLC-ers or with people that have been known for years. I really don't know of any Democrats that are experienced or charismatic yet to beat him. So that is something.
The only way Trumpism really has any staying power is that we still have 5% or lower U6 in 2020 and we are not at war or are winning a war.
Clinton, with Kerry like wins in PA, WI and slightly larger wins in NH, MI, VA, CO.
This is probably what I see if Clinton wins. With a Trump win being 2004, but with the margins of NV, CO, FL being in the 0-3 range and OH,FL,IA being in the 3-6 range. NM, VA and WI,PA could switch.
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