NH, VA, ME, IA and NV - how do you see those states trending in the future?

[Person Man]

How do you see those states trending in the future?

My guess:

- New Hampshire will quickly become another Vermont, if it isn't already.
- Virginia will basically turn into Maryland 2.0 and become an inelastic 56D/44R state or so.
- Maine will become the "real" New Hampshire in the sense that it will be the only competitive state in the Northeast. ME-01 should remain Democratic, though.
- Nevada will be more similar to FL than NM and should remain competitive if the GOP can max out the White vote and make inroads with minorities.
- Iowa will turn into Missouri 2.0.

This but I think AZ and NV will stay a hard nut to crack for different reasons than in FL. All these states are older and seem to provide more opportunities for Hispanics to assimilate though I wouldn't really consider Cubans Hispanic the way I do Mexicans, Central Americans, Hispaniolians, and Puerto Ricans.

[Person Man]

NH: Turning into another Vermont.
VA: The GOP will run up big margins in districts 6 and 9, do well (but not as good) in 1, 2, and 5, but will get swamped in the north. I think the trend is slowing down, for the next decade or so it will remain competitive with good candidates, but will end up being likely D in the late 2020's, and safe D by the early 2030's.
ME: Becoming more Republican, ME-01 will be less Democratic, ME-02 will become Republican-leaning.
IA: Missouri 2.0
NV: Should remain competitive for a while. I can see the GOP max out with whites (outside Clark County, including Washoe County) and making inroads with Hispanics. Republicans have done pretty well here in recent midterms, including 2006.

Or it could be a good machine keeping both FL and NV close..