Please stop overreacting (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 04, 2024, 06:06:23 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Please stop overreacting (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Please stop overreacting  (Read 1470 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,669
United States


« on: November 10, 2016, 08:34:09 PM »

We need Congress back.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,669
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2016, 04:14:48 PM »

We're about to lose supreme court for like, 20+ years, which is arguably the most important thing.

Not necessarily, but definitely possible and something I'm worried about. If Breyer and Ginsburg hold out and we win in 2020, we can seal the deal on that. Even if Kennedy retires/passes in the meantime and gets replaced, Clarence Thomas will be 78 in 10 years. Alito will be 76. The median age for a justice at retirement or death is currently 78-ish. Personally I think Ginsburg's refusal to retire years ago screwed liberals, but it is what it is. However, I should say that John Paul Stevens retired at what, 90? And Breyer is only 78 and it's not implausible he could go another 4 years.

Anyway, point is, there are still options but it will be a while. Maybe 15 years for Alito and Thomas to go, give or take.

--------

As for 2018, well, I'm just going to keep saying this: Deeply unpopular incumbent presidents hurt their party in midterms. Trump's current favorables are averaged at 37%, which was what Bush was at more or less in 2006. I would stop and consider that before predicting some Senate wipeout for Democrats.

In all likelihood, if Trump is as unpopular in 2018 as he is now, Republicans are going to be bled out at the House & state level. Republicans might even pick up a Senate seat or two thanks to their map, but elsewhere is a different story altogether. Republicans aren't immune to midterm backlashes.
This.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,669
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2016, 04:42:15 PM »

If we hold every seat we hold now and win NV and AZ, we are still at 50.

We would have to win WY, NE, UT, TX, MS, or TN to get a majority assuming that no Republican resign or die in the middle of the term.

I'd say the best hope is to try to recruit Jim Matheson.  Maybe Texas if there's a good candidate there.

If there's a Dumpster Fire a brewin' we will find people. We might be able to get someone in Texas. We really need to start winning down ballot in Red States again. There are how Red State Democrats now? 9? Maybe getting to 12 or 14 wouldn't be a bad idea.  In 2007, we had 13 with just 3 more senators.

We can probably win 23 seats if we win by at 5% in the HOR, right?

And we really need to start retaking these deep red down ballot swing states. If there is a recession, we need to move on NV,FL,AZ,WI,MI,PA,ME,NH,NC,GA,NM...you name it.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.018 seconds with 11 queries.