Two Guesses

[Person Man]

So, J.J., now that it looks as President Obama will win re-election with Democrats retaining the Senate and Republicans retaining the House, how does this fit into your realignment predictions?

I think it is way too early to say that for either.  We could see a Romney victory amd it not be a realignment.

How about now? 

Today, I'd guess a Romney victory but no realignment.  Long term bad news for Republicans. 

What do you foresee? That perhaps Obama was just a little early?

[Person Man]

Basically, this year isn't going to be a realignment year. Perhaps 2016 will be different...but if the economy continues to grow at a rate that is steady but not fast enough to create much risk, its reasonable that there could be an unemployment rate in the high 5s or low 6s in 2016. Whoever is in office will probably be given as much credit as Bush got with dealing with 9/11 and the .com crash. That being said, whoever wins will have his party perhaps gain 1% in the two party vote and perhaps win another state or two in 2016. Subsequently, the market, however stable, will probably correct before 2020 without much of a recovery yet. That being said, the opposing party will probably win by a convincing, but not overwhelming margin. We could be looking at "business as usual" for at least another decade. ..but knowing how the last 25 years have gone (end of the Cold War, The internet, 9/11, The American Expansionism That Followed it, the Housing bust and Obama)...I'm pretty sure there will be another big wave of easy money (internet, houses),  war (Iran, Syria), megastorm( one big enough to change the broader course of history and be blamed on Global Warming), or market crash/mass firing....I'm actually am amazed there hasn't been anything bigger...and if the 2010s don't turnout more eventful than the 2000s and there is no realignment this year, "business as usual" could be the case. That's pretty much what 1947 to 1961 was...and basically how things have been between 1991 and now.  

The only way that our country would go from being "kinda conservative" to "really conservative" or even to "kinda liberal" in this environment would be demographics. Of course there's more browns, but there are also more olds...and with things seemingly and steadily calming down or getting used to the craziness, if Romney pulls out an upset or Obama pulls away, I would look  at  the age and ethnicity of the electorate before anything else.

[Person Man]

The deluge may be upon us (not that I'm thrilled about it).

I was asking you that in a couple of threads. The "realignment" might have been the replacement of Rovian Conservatism with traditional  Nationalism. You were probably a lot happier with a Romney win. Instead of rich v. poor, it is now the "traditional populations" vs. "everyone else".

[Person Man]

What sort of re-alignment?

Political.   I was hungry and ate the pigeon before I got all the details.

Bah J.J. Bah.

It's a roundabout way of saying, I have a gut feeling that politics will change dramatically in the next decade, that the 2010's will look like the 1980's or 1930's, but not this year.

So we will finally have three parties in the US:
The Greens
The Democrats
The Social Democrats

Good call   

I think it will be something dramatic, but I don't know what.  A few possibilities:

1.  An end to "racial" politics. (Good)
2.  A more authoritarian culture.  (Probably bad)
3.  Less religion in politics. (Good)
4.  More religion in politics. (Bad)
5.  A consensus on environmental issues. (Probably good)
6.  An end to "class warfare" politics. (Good)
7.  Division into class politics.  (Bad)

I don't know, but these are options.

No to 1, 5, and 6. Yes to 2, 7. Unsure about 3, 4.

I talked about "fascism", he said that we would still have a pluralistic system. Now I see that maybe we were both right?