2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[Orser67]

Surely - not 10. Even in a wave. 6? May be, but it will reuire a really BIG wave.

I honestly don't think 6 seats would require all that big of a wave. In a favorable atmosphere, Dems should easily hold all their seats and take Wisconsin, Illinois, and Pennsylvania, plus have a shot at North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Taking all those seats doesn't seem like a huge wave to me. In a huge wave, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, and Arizona could all be in play, plus possibly Kentucky and Alaska.

[Orser67]

Solid D:
California, Oregon, Washington, Connecticut

Likely D:
None

Lean D:
Illinois, Wisconsin, Colorado

Tossup:
Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania

Lean R:
North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire

Likely R:
Missouri, Arizona, Indiana

Solid R:
Alaska, Georgia, Louisiana, Kentucky, Iowa

Safe D or Safe R:
All others

[Orser67]

I'm more bullish for Democrats in Nevada and Pennsylvania because I doubt the Republican runs much ahead of the national ticket, and I think Clinton is likely to win both states.

Potentially competitive R
KY
LA
AK
GA

Likely R
IN
MO
AZ
NC

Tilt R
OH

Toss-up
PA
FL

Tilt D
NH

Lean D
NV
CO
WI

Likely D
IL

Potentially competitive D
CA

[Orser67]