Democrats Face a Grim Future -National Journal (user search)
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  Democrats Face a Grim Future -National Journal (search mode)
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Orser67
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,946
United States


« on: May 24, 2015, 02:41:45 PM »

It won't get better for Dems if Hillary wins in 2016...

That's unclear.  Working white women turn out much more reliably in midterms.  And even so, a Kennedy/Scalia retirement with a Dem president and senate could be worth 40 state legislatures and 230 R+5 house seats IMO.

Good point.  The worst scenario for Dems long-term is a narrow, narrow Clinton victory with the GOP keeping a strong hold on the House/Senate, followed by a 2019-2020 recession.  While improbable, this outcome is somewhat plausible and would make life very, very hard for the Democrats.

Yes, and the SCOTUS consequences of a Hillary win are limited because Democrats need a miracle to keep the Senate past 2018.  Democrats have gotten too excited about trends that are likely to help them in 2040, not now.  If/when the demographic tide does roll in, note that they probably just trade the House problem for a Senate problem.  AZ/FL/GA/NC/TX are all large states.

I'd much rather have her appointing moderate candidates that could get confirmed by a Republican Senate than a Republican president appointing the next Alito.
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