Has Ryan given any indication of when he's making a decision?
Not that I have heard. My guess, is that he has said OK, but I don't want to make concessions to the Freedom Caucus. So until the Freedom Caucus bends over, things drift along. We may end up with Boehner staying in place for the balance of his term. (I suspect a majority of the Pub caucus is not prepared to make any concessions to the hostage takers, so it is not as if a third personality has that much potential to cut the Gordian Knot here.) That might not be a bad thing. Indeed, that might be what Boehner and Ryan have agreed upon. Just a wild guess on my part.
If that is what happens, the Pub primary season for House races might get a lot more interesting. Some forces out there might be motivated to try to cull the Freedom Caucus. Hostage taking in the context of electing a Speaker is just not an acceptable tactic in the minds of some, including me. Vote for the choice of the majority of your caucus, cross lines and vote for the Dem, but don't just refuse to vote at all, or for a third party which has the some effect, so that nobody gets 218 votes.
In a more perfect world, it would be nice if some Dems vote for Ryan to resolve this, but we don't live in a more perfect world apparently. I suspect the Dems favorite Pub for Speaker is in fact Boehner, so it is not as if they have much incentive to end the impasse.
What's the long term repercussions for the party of Boehner announcing and then retracting his resignation, if that happens? I've got to imagine it's not good.
More interesting question, to me: what happens in January 2017? Say the Dems have an OK, not great year. Maybe they cut down the GOP lead in the House by 10 seats. Freedom Caucus doesn't make any gains, doesn't lose any seats. But now they only need 20 instead of 30 of them to stick together to deny a Speaker who doesn't meet their demands. What changes to make it a fixable problem by then?
The Constitution says you need 218 votes. So either 1) the Freedom Caucus backs off, 2) some Dems are willing to deal, or 3) the Pub caucus gives the Freedom Caucus a substantial pound of flesh. In the new Congress, the default option will not be leaving the existing Speaker in place. So they keep voting until a Speaker is elected.
This isn't true, all the Constitution says about the Speaker is "The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers." The
accepted custom is that you need a majority of all votes cast, which is why you see never see abstentions in Speaker votes.
