Will Hillary win reelection?

[Orser67]

I think so.

1)Incumbents usually win re-election

2)The Democratic Party seems to have a generic advantage in presidential elections right now

3)The Republican Party will probably again have a tough primary that produces a flawed nominee (though probably not as bad as Trump)

4)I don't see Clinton getting a strong primary challenge from the left; they will keep their powder dry for 2024.

5)I don't think that one party holding the presidency for 12 straight years is actually that much of a disadvantage, especially when the other party often had control of Congress. The only compelling recent evidence we have is Bush I's defeat, but I think that had more to do with other factors.