Democrats CAN capture Texas.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama could capture Texas in 2012, if he tries.  If it looks like a tough reelection battle, or he's facing a Texan, he probably shouldn't bother, and focus on holding OH, VA, FL, CO, etc.  If, however, it looks like he can spread the wealth, he should make Texas a priority.

If we see these demographics for Texas in 2012:

68% Whites (35% for the Democrat)
15% Hispanics (65% for the Democrat)
12% Blacks (95% for the Democrat)
5% Others (60% for the Democrat)

That leaves him with 48%.  If Obama can find a way to get a larger number of Hispanic voters, or depress white turnout, then it is possible that he can win in Texas.  At any rate, by 2020/2024 Texas should be very close for the Democrats.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

35% of the white vote is pretty generous considering he only won 26% this year.

In Texas?  I read that he got 32% of the white vote.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

So, if we see Texas as this in 2012:

60% White (30%)
25% Hispanic (65%)
10% Black (95%)
5% Other (60%)

That gives him 47% of the vote.  If we get this:
55% White (30%)
28% Hispanic (65%)
12% Black (95%)
5% Other (60%)

This puts him at 49.1% of the vote.  Finally if we can see this:
55% White (30%)
30% Hispanic (70%)
10% Black (95%)
5% Other (60%)

That gives him 50% even.  So, he needs to find ways to decrease white turnout, while still building on his '08 %, while also increasing both non-white turnout, and his '08 % with those groups.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

So, if we see Texas as this in 2012:

60% White (30%)
25% Hispanic (65%)
10% Black (95%)
5% Other (60%)

That gives him 47% of the vote.  If we get this:
55% White (30%)
28% Hispanic (65%)
12% Black (95%)
5% Other (60%)

This puts him at 49.1% of the vote.  Finally if we can see this:
55% White (30%)
30% Hispanic (70%)
10% Black (95%)
5% Other (60%)

That gives him 50% even.  So, he needs to find ways to decrease white turnout, while still building on his '08 %, while also increasing both non-white turnout, and his '08 % with those groups.

With 20-25% Hispanics I mean 22/23% at best, not up to 30% ...

One can dream, I suppose...

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If Obama wins Florida by an 8% margin

I'll stop you right there. There's no way in hell Obama wins Florida by 8 points. That means he will have to win nationally by 12 points at least which won't happen.

68% Whites (45%)
16% Black (95%)
16% Hispanic/Other (60%)

This gives him 55.4%, which would be a double digit victory; if he has a good term, then he could easily get to these numbers in Florida.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

When I depress white turnout, I'm assuming a candidate like Jindal or Romney wins the nomination, and that conservative whites just do not turn out; so while the numbers may go down, the % will go up.