US House Redistricting: New York

[Brittain33]

You can not get 3 safe Dem seats out of western NY, but shifting parts of Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and possibly Monroe Cty from Slaughter to Hochul, Monroe county suburbs from Reed to Slaughter, and toxic Republican areas from Hochul to Reed provides a very satisfactory outcome for Dems without wasting the Ithaca votes to make a Strong Lean Dem seat into Safe.

[Brittain33]

Wouldn't a compromise map necessarily mean giving Hochul a decent chance at reelection and not privileging the GOP gerrymander already in place in western NY, though?

[Brittain33]

"both parties signed off on it" but as with the Illinois and California 2001-2002 maps, it was an incumbent-protection map that defended Republican advantages and piled up Dem votes in wasted piles. The compromise helped Dems on Long Island, helped Republicans upstate, and served Republican purposes by ensuring that the guy who lost his R seat was a left-leaning Republican in swing district (Gilman).

Don't forget, the Pubbies had the governor's seat and an active VP as well as the state senate. There was a thumb on the scale.

P.S. Yes, CA Dems had issues with non-citizens and non-voters, so it's not a perfect analogy.

[Brittain33]

Slaughter had no issues representing an exclusively Rochester-based seat until 2002.

That was a much smaller district - and the most Democratic parts of it have lost population.

It would not be much of a difference. She represented a Monroe County district in the past and by rights she should represent a Monroe County district now. The county's population is almost exactly 1 CD in population and would be Likely D in a normal election. She represented a district like that for well over a decade before Dick Cheney drew her into a hyper-Dem district to kick out LaFalce and protect Reynolds.

[Brittain33]

Slaughter is very old at this point, too.

Also, Rochester has both trended D and is incumbent friendly.

[Brittain33]

If you pull in Ithaca, you can do it; I wasn't including that in my terms for western NY for what I meant. But granted, Rochester to Ithaca is not a ridiculous stretch.

[Brittain33]

I'm inclined to believe the rumors about McCarthy's seat being on the block because it makes so much sense, demographically and politically.

With McCarthy being retired, dismantling Hochul's seat as a Republican loss doesn't make sense to me. Wouldn't they just dismantle Hinchey and make Buerkle's seat into a Dem seat? At that point, the earmuffs gerrymander gets unpacked and any change helps Hochul.

[Brittain33]

I don't understand why the earmuffs should be considered off-limits to Hochul. She represents suburban Buffalo. In the previous iteration, LaFalce had Niagara Falls and half of Buffalo. Why shouldn't the courts create a district based on Rochester and two districts based on Erie-Niagara? Especially when that is exactly what we had in the 1990s?

Your court-drawn map makes Hochul a dead duck by creating a 60% Obama district in Buffalo. Such and outcome is not impossible. But I don't see why it's more probable than restoring the 1990s map with allowances for population loss now that Hinchey has conveniently removed an obstacle to eastward expansion.

And yes, there can indeed be a free lunch when so very, very many Dem votes are currently wasted in the earmuffs district. Pay for it that way. There's plenty in the bank!

[Brittain33]

The Buffalo CD is drawn in a non partisan way, following municipal lines, and being kept compact. Isn't that the way a court that is non partisan would do it? If a court does anything else, it has an agenda.

They may be taking incumbent protection into account.

[Brittain33]

5 districts? NY Jew, have you seen what they did to Austin?

[Brittain33]

Perhaps we could start a separate thread where NY Jew could talk about how Jews, seculars, etc. persecute and hate him and then we can reserve this thread for US House Redistricting in the state of New York.

[Brittain33]

I'll say you are a anti semite on some level.

Please don't throw around terms like that lightly. Thanks.

[Brittain33]

I'm to rushed now to deal with the rest of statement  (and just for the record I didn't accuse of antisemitism (it was conditional) just aiding and abetting it)

You said "You are a anti-semite (on some level.)" Ok, so you're not accusing him of anti-Semitism, just saying he's an anti-semite.

[Brittain33]

You know the funny thing is NY Jew has attacked far more Jews in this thread than anyone else for all his accusations of anti-Semitism.

Well, welll.... Talk about self hatred ))

True story.

[Brittain33]

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.

unless your a judge in the case, a member of the legislature or somehow able to convince the court to open it up to the public again why should I care about your antisemitic map?

Please don't throw that word around so lightly. Thank you.

[Brittain33]

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.

unless your a judge in the case, a member of the legislature or somehow able to convince the court to open it up to the public again why should I care about your antisemitic map?

Please don't throw that word around so lightly. Thank you.

It's not lightly anyone who would purposely destroy the Jewish vote like he wants to is a vile anti semite, and I will call him out on it.

Why are you so sure it is animated by Jew hatred as opposed to securing partisan advantage? How can you be so confident about the motives of people?  Sure one can hypothesize until the cows come home, but to make a flat out assertion is not something that well, a lawyer would do, because the facts just don't support making a clear and convincing case that the motive is in fact based on ethnic animus rather than what is typically the case, which is about getting as many of your team elected as possible.

Right.

When people pack and crack minorities to reduce their voting power, it may be born of callousness or indifference, but it hardly implies hatred. And when you consider the abuses caused by anti-Semitism in the last century alone, the burden of proof is on you as to explain why the fracturing of an Orthodox Jewish (which seems to be how you define "Jewish" here, although no definition of anti-Semitism I know of makes an exception for secular, reform, or conservative Jews, all of whom were targeted by Hitler) community in Brooklyn is an act of hatred rather than one of political alienation, callousness, or simple partisan advantage.

You have to understand, anti-Semitism is such a powerful accusation that we, as Jews (even if you define me out of it, that's fine, I don't care) have a responsibility not to play that card freely when there are plenty of other explanations. Even more so in this case where there's no evidence or even plausibility to your claim.

[Brittain33]

Any map that preserves the earmuffs and makes them even more urban is a gerry, IMO. Those suburban towns in Monroe County you shed in order to make it more of a D vote sink include Louise Slaughter's home town of Fairport.

[Brittain33]

Buffalo and Rochester are very different cities with different economies and politics. That would be like linking Raleigh-Durham and Winston-Salem, or saying Baltimore and Washington D.C. are basically the same. Rochester is built on knowledge industries and engineering while Buffalo is rust belt.

[Brittain33]

Buffalo and Rochester are very different cities with different economies and politics. That would be like linking Raleigh-Durham and Winston-Salem, or saying Baltimore and Washington D.C. are basically the same. Rochester is built on knowledge industries and engineering while Buffalo is rust belt.

Parts of Buffalo and Rochester are currently in the same congressional district.   If the judge goes with a least-change map, they might still be linked in the same district, ugliness notwithstanding.

Sorry, I should have quoted the line I was responding too which said that Buffalo and Rochester were pretty much the same. I'm not disputing that they're in the same district now blah blah least change.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That doesn't follow. Legislators accepted a map drawn that was as a partisan compromise that froze Republican incumbent advantages upstate, and this was a gerrymander included to make that happen. It does not follow that Rochester and Buffalo are similar.

[Brittain33]

That's kind of exciting. Like California. Are there two AA districts in Brooklyn?

[Brittain33]

Republicans could pick up 4 districts if we see 2010 happen again and they line up great challengers and we don't count them losing Turner, and Dems could pick up multiple districts if we see 2006 happen again and we line up great challengers and we don't count our losing Hinchey and Hochul. The map makes many districts more competitive and given that the Republican Senate translates into a bench in a lot of D-held districts, Skelos would boast. However, given how miserably NY legislators seem to do when they run for Congress, he might be cautious. I'm not sure I see Caesar Trunzo unseating Steve Israel in 2012...

[Brittain33]

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

[Brittain33]

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter?

[Brittain33]

Torie, every time you take the field for the Republicans, the Dems collapse and sign up for some terrible bargain that gives them 10% of the loaf.

Unhappiness with the court map seems to be focused on the idiosyncratic case of Slaughter losing a safe district and Pelosi making a cameo on her behalf, and some new risk to entrenched Dems on LI. Does anyone really believe the Pubbies are happy with Turner getting vaporized, Buerkle getting no support and on her way out, and Gibson unexpectedly being endangered? This map gives both parties more opportunity for growth, but make no mistake, it's not a win for the Pubbies.

[Brittain33]

Gibson was basically a wave wash in who has almost no crossover appeal.  He would very likely lose in the new district.  

Really? My sense has always been that he's relatively moderate. I think that he's vulnerable, but he has an impressive background. The Democrats would need a strong candidate to beat him, even in the proposed district.

I really wonder how much opportunity he's had to carve out a defined persona. He was elected in 2010 because it was a great Republican year and if he's reelected in 2012 it will be because it's not a great Dem year, IMO.

Is his voting record markedly different from that of, say, Spencer Bachus or John Fleming on anything significant?