PPP in Wisconsin: Romney - 48%, Obama - 47%

[Brittain33]

Yes, in fact, a presidential sample more Republican than the recall electorate is an odd result.

[Brittain33]

Yes, in fact, a presidential sample more Republican than the recall electorate is an odd result.

It wasn't that odd in 2004 when it was R+3. That would mean the presidential sample was more Republican that year than the 2012 recall electorate.

Dane County put up extremely high turnout in the 2012 recall (Madison was even higher), and Milwaukee County was right at the state average. To pretend that there is some hidden reservoir of votes is to ignore facts. With the exception of Menominee the lowest turnout counties were Walker Counties.

Morning in America has to go back 8 years to find a comparable electorate. That says all we need to know. There are tons of voters who only vote in presidential elections.

I'm not in a place to run the number, so help me out. How much higher was this "extremely high" turnout in Dane County in the recall vs. the presidential election in 2008? How many tens of thousands of votes over the presidential election in 2004?

[Brittain33]

Let me sketch this out for you:

You were talking about the poll electorate.
krazen shifted to the recall electorate.
I said that the closest comparable thing to the recall electorate was 2004, 8 years in the past.

You respond with 2010, which was both a highly Republican election and was D+1, which no, is not that close to R+2, particularly when it was such a teabaggy election.

Morning in America has to go back 8 years to find a comparable electorate. That says all we need to know. There are tons of voters who only vote in presidential elections.

Hey, Brittain33, how about reading the thread you're posting in.

Republican friendly compared to what? The record-breaking Democratic year of '08? Then sure it's a little R friendly. But not compared to other statewide elections in Wisconsin.
In 2004, the sample was R+3. In 2010, it was D+1. In the 2012 recall election, it was R+1. Honestly, the D+6 turnout of '08 is what looks like the outlier here, not the R+2 from their sample.

So as you can see, Brittain, I don't have to go back 8 years to find a comparable sample. If you deem 2004's R+3 turnout comparable to PPPs R+2 sample, then what about the R+1 turnout in the recall isn't a "comparable electorate" to PPPs sample? Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that just two months ago? What about the D+1 turnout in 2010 isn't comparable? Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that just 2 years ago?