Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Brittain33]

I don't agree with you there, I think Andrews would have been much, much harder to defeat.  The main argument for NJ GOP is to say, "hey Democrats are old and trite and let's give us some new breath."  If Andrews had been in there, I doubt the GOP would have spent a lot of time on the election.  Lautenberg is old, incompentent, and not as good at winning the independents.

Ok, but a 60-something retread who ran and lost a statewide race 12 years ago and hasn't been heard from since is not the embodiment of change.

[Brittain33]

But she didnt win in 2006, which was a worse year for Republicans than 2008 will be, and I can guarentee you that.

You can not guarantee 2008 won't be as bad as 2006 was, both as a whole and in the case of this seat. For one, Republicans are no longer defending a majority with ample funds, but are a fractured minority without the money to compete with the Democrats. For two, the top-of-the-ticket dynamic favors Democrats in a Presidential election in N.J. For three, it's now an open seat, and not an incumbent defense. Some people have argued this cuts both ways with Ferguson, but that's a challenging case to make.

Whatever else, we can all agree that you can't draw a straight line from '06 to '08 and say '08 will be better for Republicans, so any Democrat who didn't win last time is S.O.L.

[Brittain33]

Sam, why is Stevens less vulnerable than Young? Young, unlike Stevens, hasn't been formally charged with any crime. Is it Young's polarizing persona (he's ornery and crabby, but not in a lovable way) that's costing him (as Ivan Moore asserts), or are Alaskans just more attached to 'Uncle Ted'?

Greater attachment.  Young's personality doesn't help matters. 

Conversely, Begich is starting from a stronger position than Berkowitz, having both the name (not much use in a young state) and the geographic base (this does matter).

I met Berkowitz in June at a small fundraiser. He was emphasizing lowering energy costs for the Native communities as his signature issue, but also talked about "change" etc.

[Brittain33]

From TPM (D):

The DCCC latest FEC filings from last night show that the Dems put down over $7 million for ads in 39 races across the country, in a mix of offense and defense. The single most notable expenditure: The Dems are spending $777,000 to go after scandal-plagued Rep. Don Young (R-AK), an astonishing amount for a small and very red state.

Republicans will agree, this is a total FF move for the Democrats.

[Brittain33]

Would it be correct to read this as predicting a D net pick-up of 13 seats in the House, with a range of 5 either way? So 8-18?