Are young voters really as Democratic as being portrayed?

[Dan the Roman]

I would argue that the current High School generation is far less Democratic than they are culturally foreign to the GOP on issues like America's place in the world and gay rights. I think that while people born in the mid 80s even have something of an American greatness bias in foreign policy a simple look at the overlap in popularity in tv shows between kids aged 12-18 right now shows a much greater foreign influence. This is also widely apparent in the field of Gay rights. In my generation support for civil unions and non-discrimination was looked upon as the correct position. Now being in favor of gay marriage totally is the only correct decision. John McCain would have had enormous appeal to 18-29 year olds in 2000 who would have loved his tough-guy image, and many of whom wished they had served in the military. By 2008, many of the things that would have helped him with that group were fatal instead.

These young people are not instinctively liberal in an absolute sense. What they are however is so massively out of touch with the culture of the GOP on social issues, and its tone(rather than substance) on foreign and economic policy that I see the GOP making little or no progress unless it makes major changes. History tells us that these changes will be less substantive(an abandonment of the Christian right), than ones of emphasis. Opposing Gay rights using outdated imagery accusing them of being pedophiles, or invoking hostility will backfire. Opposing hate crimes laws on the basis they infringe personal freedom may have wider appeal.

I think that at least in the short run the GOP is in for trouble because it is has gotten into a position where its base won't let it make the tonal concessions it needs. And it does need to adjust on many of these. Some are certainly cyclical, especially on economics. Others though, like Gay rights are going to simply be bigger problems to such an extent that I think for the first time the GOP is actually losing more from these wedge issues than gaining from them.

[Dan the Roman]

Well I have proof that embracing gay marriage won't help much in my state, Ohio, at least. 60% oppose a law allowing same sex couples to marry (civil unions are evenly divided). Among those who know someone who is gay, 53% still oppose. Moreover, even among those 18-34 52% would oppose such a law.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1346

The thing about Gay Rights, and not getting this is one reason the GOP is in so much trouble, is not really about Gays or actual rights, or issues. There are a whole lot of voters who are not Gay, don't really support Gay Marriage, and yet find it unseemly for a politician to make a big deal about opposing Gay Marriage. Its really quite odd, but its basically a type of metric for determining if someone is a nasty person. And far more voters than those who actually support gay rights think politicians who oppose it are mean and nasty.

This is sort of the same way that during the 1990s any Republican who was Pro-Choice was automatically a moderate regardless of other issue positions. The whole thing is weird side effect of the way voters use cues as short-cuts to conclusions.

A good example of this is California with Prop 8. Clearly a majority of voters voted for it, but open support for the Proposition is a fringe position in public, and given the climate of the last few months it mus be even among many of the people who voted for it. Its pretty clear that Meg Whittman is going to have serious trouble in the General Election from her support of Proposition 8.

Part of the reason for this is that the Civil Union position, while superficially appealing, is intellectually unsustainable. If one is religious enough to oppose Marriage, and buys the arguments about weakening it, one should naturally oppose Civil Unions as well. In turn, once someone has legitimized in their own mind that Gay Relationships are equal and deserving of equal recognition it is a very small jump to full marriage. Therefore, while it is a position that appeals to voters in their own minds, it sounds spectacularly condescending or dishonest when proposed by a politician.

The GOP can get by without being the Pro-Gay Marriage party. It will take enormous damage however from being the Anti-Gay Marriage party.