Kerry +10 in Michigan

[The Vorlon]

Kerry is up 10 in MIchigan...

Here is the link

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MI040405president.pdf

The distribution of voters by party ID in this sample seems a bit out.

Update! - The Survey USA sample showing Bush +9 in Arizona is also off - the other way... waaaay too many Republicans in that sample...

The chart below is from PEW



In this survey: (entire sample = 717)

Republicans - 195/717 = 27%
Democrats - 269/717 = 38%
Other - 232/717 = 32%
Don't know 21/717 = 3%

In This survey - (Likely Voters = 536)

Republicans - 163/536 = 30%
Democrats - 205/536 = 38%
Other - 152/536 = 32%

MICHIGAN - Likely Kerry State - Current Estimate - Kerry +5

[The Vorlon]

I am in the conservative heartland of Michigan which is the southwestern part of the lower peninsula. This is probably the only region that will strongly support Bush. The East tends to be very Democratic and the northern area seems to be evenly split. I remember in 1996 when early returns had Clinton ahead of Dole in my county and the horrified television announcer said "Ottawa County has never gone democratic" Well, it didn't and therefore hell refused to freeze over for another day.

Welcome to the boards.. :0

Nice to have somebody from such a key state aboard!

How is the economy where you are, and how is affirmative action playing in your state?

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, that prediction in your signature, it is identical to the 2000 result with the exception of West Virgina, isn't it?

Yes.

I have started with 2000 as a baseline, and move a state when there is enough evidence to do so...

Last month it did not look at all like 2000...

I just moved Pensylvania from Bush to Kerry, and New Hampshire from Kerry to Bush as well...