In 1988 H.W Bush was in WV 5.9% below his national number.
In 2000 G.W Bush was in WV 4% above his national number.
An almost 10% shift in 12 years.
Prediction:
Bush will win WV
2000 is an outlier. Gore lost the state due to a large number of single-issue voters that won't exist in the same quantities in 2004.
There is a darn good reason why Bush, Kerry, and all the 527s focus so much on West Virginia, and it most likely is because the state is very likely to flip one way or another (very close to the national number).
I think Gore's Campaign Book entitled:
"Why Coal is evil and all coal miners should be thrown out of work immediately and then publically shamed and flogged" hurt him in West Virginia. (I may be paraphrasing the title, but not by much)
The GOP seems pretty cocky about the state, A poll early last month by POS had bush up about 2% so I wouldn't be struting around too much based on that.
I think the state is very close, maybe Bush is up just a tad right now, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that.
The Dems are still anti-coal and anti-gun. I am sure Bush and the NRA will remind folks of that in West Virginia.
