Canada 2011 Official Thread

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This guy who seems to style himself as the Canadian Nate Silver is skeptical of the NDP's sudden surge. Anyone care to comment on his projection? I don't know much about Canadian politics, but it seems like his model isn't geared to a fast-changing, six-week campaign; the Nate Silver model seems to be more suited to a lot of polling over the course of months.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Thanks. I also noticed his prediction for the New Brunswick elections was hideously off.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

"Bawdy house"? Canada is so quaint.

I don't really get whose mind this would change at this point. Presumably conservative pearl-clutchers would be voting Tory (or Christian Heritage or whatever), and Liberal defectors are probably not going to be swayed by something this minor if they're pissed off enough at the Liberals to switch to the NDP. This seems somewhat reminiscent of the hail-mary "Aqua Buddha" or "There is no God!" last-minute ads that didn't help Conway or Dole any, and probably hurt them.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Do they ever poll the territories, or is that like polling Alaska?