2013 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

ideological considerations, and the feeling that black-yellow doesn't stand for anything, are leading to me considering going Green.

Dear lord, don't do that! The Greens' anti-nuclear histrionics prove that they are nowhere near responsible enough to be in government.

I agree on the nuclear issue, but that issue no longer being relevant in German politics makes it easier to stomach.

Who would you vote for? (You'll be 18, right?)

[Franzl]

Protip for all undecideds: Your decision won't matter anyway. Merkel and black-yellow will win handily. Only 2017 matters.

And then our decision won't matter because Hannelore Kraft will be elected in a landslide.

Our decisions never "matter" unless the balance of power is decided by 1 vote.

Yet we still vote, and we still try to base that vote on an educated decision, regardless of how the election is likely to turn out.

[Franzl]

It's a shame Steinbrück is their candidate. I'd have no reservations voting SPD if Kraft were in charge...

[Franzl]

If the SPD still exists after another grand coalition...

[Franzl]

Emnid, 09.04.2013, Saxony state elections:

CDU: 43%
Linke: 19%
SPD: 16%
Grüne: 7%
FDP: 5%

NPD: 4%
Piraten: 4%


CDU-FDP retains their majority (48-42).

[Franzl]

Forsa, 10.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 9%
FDP: 6%

Piraten: 3%

CDU-FDP narrowly retains majority (47-46).

If there were a direct chancellor vote:

Merkel: 57%
Steinbrück: 19%

[Franzl]

Hah: Steinbruck is even losing on "social justice." Part of that's because Merkel has galloped to the centre, but for a social democrat to be losing on social justice... Jeebus. He also "borrowed" his campaign slogan from a temporary jobs agency.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/12/us-germany-politics-poll-idUSBRE93B0HN20130412

Has Steinbrück hired Mitt Romney as his campaign manager?

[Franzl]

Infratest dimap, 13.04.2012, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 2%

[Franzl]

Question to Germans: is Kraft from the Schroder wing or the more left than centre wing of the SPD?

Certainly the latter.

[Franzl]

Emnid, 14.03.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%

Black-yellow almost at a majority (46-48).
Red-green...nowhere near it (40-54).

[Franzl]

Schade Steinbrück alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei.

[Franzl]

I tend to agree, but then before 2009, I would have put the floor a good deal higher than they actually got... So who knows?

[Franzl]

At least at state level here in Hesse, I fully intend to vote SPD.

[Franzl]

Emnid, 21.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 4%
others: 4%

Black-yellow with no majority (44-48). Red-green...what's that? (40-52).


Infratest/dimap, 21.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
AfD: 3%

Black with no majority (41-48).
Red-Green also at 41-48.

[Franzl]

If Germany had been a "normal country", the Linke wouldn't exist.

[Franzl]

Of course a far-left party would exist...but the specific circumstances surrounding Linke are a direct result of German history.

[Franzl]

Forsa, 24.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%
AfD: 2%

Black-yellow retains majority (47-44).

[Franzl]

Infratest dimap, 25.04.2013, Rheinland-Pfalz State Election:

CDU: 43%
SPD: 34%
Grüne: 12%

FDP: 2%
Linke: 2%

The governing red-green coalition would narrowly maintain its majority (46-43) despite the CDU's strong showing.

[Franzl]

YouGov, 25.04.2013, NRW state election:

SPD: 42%
CDU: 31%
Grüne: 12%
FDP: 6%

Linke: 3%
Piraten: 2%

The governing red-green coalition would win a landslide re-election (54-37).

[Franzl]

Emnid, 28.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%
AfD: 2%

[Franzl]

INSA/BILD, 29.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 16%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 5%

AfD: 3%
Piraten: 2%

Black-yellow lose their majority (43-49).
Red-green still far from their own majority (42-50).

[Franzl]

Forsa, 30.04.2013, Berlin (state election)

CDU: 28%
SPD: 24%
Grüne: 21%
Linke: 12%
Piraten: 5%

others: 10%

[Franzl]

Forsa, 01.05.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%
FDP: 5%

AfD: 3%
Piraten: 3%
others: 5%


Black-yellow almost at a majority (44-45).
Red-green = epic fail (37-52).

[Franzl]

Armer Ude

[Franzl]

Why? They had it coming.

Indeed they did, although I was surprised we actually managed to do it. Pity they survived at state level here.