2013 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

FORSA, 09.01.2013, Federal Elections:

CDU/CSU: 42% (+1)
SPD: 25% (-2)
Grüne: 15% (+2)
Linke: 9% (+1)

FDP: 2% (-2)
Piraten: 3% (0)
Sonstige: 4% (0)

FDP down to only 2%

to the FDP numbers, but I just want to point out that using Franzl notation, this poll is a 42-39 absolute Black majority.

How do you figure? CDU is down 42-49.

[Franzl]

What are the chances that the McAllister-CDU wins close to 45% on election day and the FDP about 5% ?

Maybe not quite 45, but he's popular enough something like that might happen.

[Franzl]

10%
1%
3-5%

[Franzl]

Nothing Merkel or the CDU do will really have an influence on number 3. The economy is already doing reasonably well.

It'd just be the result of a fluke if FDP, Piraten and Linke all managed to go slightly under 5%.

[Franzl]

INFO/Focus, 12.01.2013, Niedersachsen State Election:

CDU 38%
SPD 31,5%
Grüne 14,5%
Linke 6%

FDP 4,5%
Piraten 3%

Red-Green majority (46-44).

But only works if the FDP stays out, of course. And the Linke number seems a bit high to me.

[Franzl]

CDU-FDP hanging on depending on the Left staying out does tend to ensure it gets in. In the end, people usually want the government out more than they want a particular alternative in.

And it's not as if the state SPD ruled out governing with the Left if necessary.

We'll see, but Lower Saxony really doesn't seem like a place where the Left should be doubling its support at the last minute...

I was thinking McAllister would survive somehow, but maybe confirming black-yellow in office is too much for some people to stomach.

I'd probably vote SPD in this election, btw.

[Franzl]

SIGH...

CDU alone is higher than red-green...

However you feel about that...it is amusing

[Franzl]

SIGH...

CDU alone is higher than red-green...

However you feel about that...it is amusing

Kinda yeah...

At this point, the best thing that could happen to SPD is probably for it to fall into irrelevancy and start again from scratch in a couple years.

It's still very unlikely, of course, but a CDU absolute majority might be best for everyone. Stable government, FDP and SPD get to start over...

[Franzl]

Kraft would be a very good idea for the SPD.

[Franzl]

In former West Germany, SPD should be open to coalitions with Left Party, at least to see how works.

At this point, there aren't that many places in West Germany where the Left would even get in.

[Franzl]

CDU/CSU is continuing it's dramatic gains in the newest Forsa poll. And now a TWENTY point margin between them and the SPD.

Forsa, 16.01.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 43%
SPD 23%
Grüne 14%
Linke 8%

Piraten 4%
FDP 3%

Black ALONE is only trailing the entire (represented) opposition 43-45.
Red-Green FAR AWAY from a majority (37-51).

[Franzl]

You beat me on the FORSA poll! Nevertheless, one more interesting detail:  According to FORSA, many SPD leaners, frustrated and irritated by the debate on Steinbrück, "duck away and don't dare to commit to their party".

But i still have one:

EMNID, Bavaria State elections (for CSU!), 15.01.13:

CSU      48 ()
SPD      20 (-1)
Grüne   12 (+2)
FW         8 ()

FDP       3 (-1)
Linke     3 (+1)
Piraten   3 (-1)
Others   3 ()

Changes relate to last EMNID poll (14.10.2012)  

And you just barely beat me on the Bavarian one. Easy CSU majority remains easy, with 48-40...

[Franzl]

So is CDU-FDP (or CDU alone? lol) practically destined for re-election if black-yellow is re-elected in Niedersachsen? I'm starting to get that impression.

[Franzl]

I'd say a greater than 50-50 chance black-yellow holds on.

[Franzl]

My prediction:

CDU 39.5
SPD 29.5
Grüne 15.0
FDP 6.0

Linke 4.5
Piraten 2.0

sonstige 3.5


CDU + FDP (black-yellow): 45.5
SPD + Greens (red-green): 44.5

[Franzl]

Ahead of the state election, a new federal Emnid poll:

43% CDU/CSU (+2)
25% SPD (-1)
13% Greens (-1)
  7% Left (-1)
  4% FDP (+1)
  4% Pirates (nc)
  4% Others (nc)

Biggest. Gap. Ever.

Compared with their 11/11 poll, it seems 5% from the SPD switched over to the CDU (38-30).

Doubt it will stay that way, but we're almost in CDU absolute majority territory regardless of whether the Left gets in... (43-45 with the Left at 7%)

[Franzl]

When do the polls close and how long does it take for results to trickle in?

Polls close in 45 minutes. Exit polls immediately, which are usually quite reliable within 1% or so.

[Franzl]

I'm really kind of undecided about this election.

I'd probably vote SPD in Niedersachsen, and I don't really want to see black-yellow given the satisfaction of surviving as a coalition, but on the other hand.....watching the SPD in the coming days and weeks if they screw this up massively....would also be quite amusing.

[Franzl]

LOL

[Franzl]

Both ARD and ZDF are currently predicting a 1-seat majority for the black-yellow coalition but take this with a huge grain of salt ... This will be a nailbiter.

Yeah, German exit polls are very good....but I wouldn't bet the farm on a 1 seat majority in them.

[Franzl]

Eesh, US 2000 style nailbiter.

Only I doubt this election will be going to court...

[Franzl]

Steinbrück is politically dead if this holds.

Dead in the sense that he has as much chance of becoming chancellor as Steinmeier 4 years ago....or dead in the sense that you think he'll be replaced as Kanzlerkandidat?

[Franzl]

CDU does seem to have a tendency to gain 1% or so between the first exit poll and the final results.

[Franzl]

Steinbrück is politically dead if this holds.

Dead in the sense that he has as much chance of becoming chancellor as Steinmeier 4 years ago....or dead in the sense that you think he'll be replaced as Kanzlerkandidat?

1 plus the possibility of 2.

2 happening would be really fun to watch.

[Franzl]

Wann kann wir die ersten Wahlkreisergebnisse sehen?

Sobald sie ausgezählt sind.