2013 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

04.02.2013, Forsa, Berlin (state election)

CDU: 26%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 25%
Linke: 10%
Piraten: 7%

others: 7%

The governing SPD-CDU would retain its majority (51-42), although the CDU would lead it.

[Franzl]

Forsa, 06.02.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Red-green with no majority (40-48).
CDU with no majority (41-47).

[Franzl]

Guttenberg, at least, resigned even before his title was revoked. Schavan seems like she wants to fight.

[Franzl]

Infratest dimap, 07.02.2013, Federal Election

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 29%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 6%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Red-Green almost at a majority (44-45).

[Franzl]

Schavan has resigned.

[Franzl]

09.02.2013, GESS (Hamburger Abendblatt), Hamburg (State Election)

SPD: 51%
CDU: 23%
Grüne: 13%

Linke: 4%
Piraten: 2%
FDP: 2%

SPD retains absolute majority (51-36).

[Franzl]

It's slightly ironic that a few days ago, it was rumored that Merkel might pick Loser McAllister as a replacement should Schavan be untenable... and then she goes for a loser member of his cabinet instead.

Maybe she has in fact asked McAllister and he turned her down?

I would say he needs more time to go over his dissertation, but he appears to not have "promoviert".

[Franzl]

Emnid, 10.02.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 4%
sonstige: 3%

Red-Green with no majority (42-47).

[Franzl]

Emnid, 10.02.2013, Bavaria (state election)

CSU: 48%
SPD: 20%
Grüne: 12%
FW: 9%

FDP: 3%
Piraten: 3%
Linke: 2%

CSU absolute majority (48-41).

[Franzl]

Infratest, 12.02.2013, Bavaria (state election)

CSU: 46%
SPD: 19%
Grüne: 15%
FW: 8%

FDP: 3%
Piraten: 3%
Linke: 2%

CSU with an absolute majority (46-42).

[Franzl]

Forsa, 13.02.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 43%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 3%
Piraten: 3%

CDU/CSU not extremely far from absolute majority (43-46).
Red-Green nowhere near a majority (39-50).

[Franzl]

CDU/CSU not extremely far from absolute majority (43-46).

I'm still absolutely convinced that there will be no absolute majority in these elections. In the end, CDU/CSU will inevitably lose votes to the FDP, even if there is no "Zweitstimmen-Kampagne". At the end of the day, the result will look more like CDU/CSU 39%, FDP 8%.

I tend to agree.

[Franzl]

Stephan Weil (SPD) elected Ministerpräsident of Niedersachsen by a vote of 69-68.

[Franzl]

Question about the federal election: What's the PV trigger for an absolute majority? 45%? Higher? Since some polls have CDU/CSU in the low 40s. I don't think Merkel can eke out many more votes for Team Black unless the SPD drops below 25%, which seems unlikely unless Steinbruck outdoes himself again in the gaffe department. (Debates maybe?)

Well....the trigger is whatever is higher than all other parties (that are represented in parliament) combined....

In reality...probably 46-47, I'd say.

[Franzl]

So almost certainly not happening then. Grand it is.

Well it could be lower, if say, Linke, FDP and Pirates were all at 4.9%, say Then even 40-42 could theoretically suffice. Pretty big if, of course

[Franzl]

Well Steinbrück is right, after all.

[Franzl]

03.03.2013, Emnid, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%

Black-yellow with no majority (45-49).
Red-green with no majority (42-52).

[Franzl]

GMS, 06.03.2013, Bavaria State Election:

CSU: 48%
SPD: 21%
Grüne: 12%
FW: 8%

FDP: 3%
Linke: 3%
Piraten: 2%

Easy CSU absolute majority (48-41).

[Franzl]

Forsa, 06.03.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Grand coalition here we come.

[Franzl]

Emnid, 17.03.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 28%
Grüne: 16%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Red-Green close to a majority (44-47).

[Franzl]

GMS, 19.03.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 16%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%
FW: 1%

Red-Green with no majority (42-52).
Black-yellow with no majority (45-49).

[Franzl]

FGW/ZDF, 22.03.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 29%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Red-Green with no majority (43-47).
CDU with no majority (40-50).

[Franzl]

Emnid, 07.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 8%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%
others: 4%

Black-yellow with no majority (44-49).
Red-green with no chance in hell at a majority (41-52).

[Franzl]

This is actually pretty much the first election (even though it's still 5 months away) in which I've been genuinely undecided. Odd feeling.

[Franzl]

This is actually pretty much the first election (even though it's still 5 months away) in which I've been genuinely undecided. Odd feeling.

In which Wahlkreis are you voting? Have you always voted SPD?

Odenwald:
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundestagswahlkreis_Odenwald

Since 2008, I've voted CDU in elections at most levels (except for 1 or 2 defections to the FDP in my...stupid...teenage years.)

I think I've honestly turned into a social democrat, more or less, but I still believe in Merkel's competence and...with some reservations...tend to value her overall leadership at EU level. But ideological considerations, and the feeling that black-yellow doesn't stand for anything, are leading to me considering going Green. Problem is I really don't think Steinbrück would be any good.

Glad there's still 5 months to go...