FIFA 2014 World Cup - Official Discussion Thread

[Franzl]

While I will obviously support my team, since this time French aren't ridiculous, if Germany wins the World Cup, I would be happy as well!

Even if we survive against the French, I don't see how we'd have a chance against Colombia or the Dutch.

[Franzl]

While I will obviously support my team, since this time French aren't ridiculous, if Germany wins the World Cup, I would be happy as well!

Even if we survive against the French, I don't see how we'd have a chance against Colombia or the Dutch.

The Dutch are favored?

Just think what Robben would have done against our defenders last night.

[Franzl]

It's perfectly possible we'll start playing competently again and beat France. Only saying that this must happen or we're more than screwed.

[Franzl]

Belgium is a pointless country that shouldn't exist.

Such a statement can only come from someone who doesn't drink beer.

[Franzl]

I'm really liking both Argentina and Switzerland here. Should be a fun one!

[Franzl]

I don't like bringing politics into sport.

[Franzl]

Belgium has been better so far, but anything can happen.

[Franzl]

It was a matter of time.

[Franzl]

Gosh darn...

Another solid performance in the World Cup by the US.

You mean by Tim Howard. The US didn't start to actually play until the last 10 minutes. Then it was actually pretty impressive, but too little too late.

Still a good tournament all in all for the US.

[Franzl]

Can't think of a better advertisement for the sport than that game.

And especially for a lot of American fans, it shows that 0-0 doesn't necessarily mean boring.

[Franzl]

I'm a bit sceptical of some of the probabilities he's had for several matches so far.

[Franzl]

oh god no: http://www.sportschau.de/av/audioloewsiebenspielerhabenleichtegrippesymptome100.html

That's bad... At least Müller is apparently not (yet) affected.

[Franzl]

It's pretty impossible to prove probabilities wrong. He also gave Brazil a 78% chance of advancing over Chile, which I said was absurd at the time and which wad confirmed. (The really odd thing was that Brazil beating Chile was supposedly only 2% less probable than Germany beating Algeria. I know of no serious pundits that were predicting 6-0 for Germany. At the same time, unless Silver is a capable fortune teller, I don't see how he could habe foreseen Germany playing so terribly.

I'm not saying Silver's statements are necessarily "wrong", but some of them don't seem logical, particularly in relation to each other.

[Franzl]

This is my problem with Nate Silver. He presents his predictions are merely "probabilities." So he does not predict that Brazil will advance, but instead that Brazil has a 78% chance to advance or whatever. But if Brazil wins, he and the media applaud him for correctly predicting that Brazil would advance. But if Brazil had lost, he would have just said, "Ah, but I said there was a 22% chance that they would lose, so I'm not wrong!" To check whether or not his probabilities are right, you'd have to look at if, over time, a team with a 78% chance to advance does actually advance in 78 out of 100 games. You can't just say, "Oh, he got the winner in all 8 games right, he's a soccer prediction genius!"

It's the same intuition that makes people speak highly of pollsters for calling the winner right even if off by 5%. But a poll saying R+1 is often regarded as incorrect if the result is D+1.

That said, I don't think the sample size is sufficient for statistics to be of much use for most World Cup matches. Too many unique factors play a role to be able to give a serious, objective estimate of probability.

[Franzl]

[Franzl]

Neuer is a hero!

[Franzl]

This is the fourth consecutive World Cup Semi appearance for Germany. History making.

We're consistently very good. That's pretty damn impressive. But it would be kinda cool to make it past the Semi again...

[Franzl]

Anyone who roots for Germany is a terrible, yes.

And I'm rooting for Costa Rica obviously, though Colombia is my second favorite.

Proud terrible here

[Franzl]

We're in trouble if Brazil play like that

[Franzl]

Congratulations FIFA. You have me rooting for Germany.

Welcome to the good side

[Franzl]

Even though three of the Semi finalists (already counting the Dutch as going through) are disgusting, I love how, like usual, the Joke teams have been weeded out when it matters the most. Despite the obvious disappointment in Group D, the referees and Colombia exiting, I have really enjoyed the tournament. It's obviously 1000x better than that disaster in 2010.

I don't like Argentina much either, but calling them disgusting is overdoing it a tad...

[Franzl]

Does Phil consider every non-Italian national side in Europe to be "disgusting"?

No, he has a select few "favorites".

[Franzl]

Fu**ing amazing!!!

Still, one more match to go and I hope 2010 doesn't repeat itself when it really matters. We're great at absolutely humiliating our (moderately strong) opponents, but getting started is usually the problem.

Still an amazing night, and particularly pleasurable doing it to Brazil

[Franzl]

You know, I don 't give a crap is we lose tomorrow against Netherlands. Today was good enough and I don't even like Germany. In fact I¡'mk afraid that even if we beat Netherlands, we will be destroyed by Germany in a bigger dissapointment than 2010.

Frankly I now wish that Germany beat us in the final. It will give us enough hope about winning the title while at the same time we can't complain that we did badly in the tournament and the government won't have that much of political propaganda to throw around.

So, tomorrow is a win - win for me

Don't say that...

The final is a new match where anything can happen. Getting overconfident is my biggest fear at this point.

[Franzl]

Silver had long been overestimating Brazil's odds. Unfortunately, he always has the excuse that it's "just probabilities".