French Regionals 2010

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Fiesta in EE Toulouse.

Seems they would ask a lot for an alliance.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Idiot Alert: Gérard Collomb félicite Georges Frêche : "Les électeurs ne veulent pas suivre les consignes des appareils parisiens"

lol, persiste et signe.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

My big problem is that everyone after Sarkozy is bad (except Fillon, but it won't be him).
And that Aubry is now really in a position of force. And I really hate her. Speaking like Mélenchon, without being Mélenchon, is so disgusting... At least, Daddy was intellectually honest...

Well, I think you shouldn't take conclusion tonight, there is still one run, and these regionals are just one step, for example there will be a big piece of cake for PS with primaries, really and Sarkozy has still 2 years too to try to do something (well I'm not optimistic for the right, but, conclusions tonight for presidentials are really early) .

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

If regional elections in France now follow the pattern of local elections in Britain (and I think they do) then there aren't many national implications to be drawn from these results - as much as I'd like to think otherwise, obviously.

Well, for example, if there effectively is a 'grand chelem' of PS next Sunday, that would be important for Aubry, the score of EE is important for them too, it is important for Marine Le Pen too, so yes, maybe they aren't many, there are some, that are undeniable, but not definitive ones to me.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

An ideologically leftist country with a deeply stupid right: France has been no more than this since 1945 and will be for the foreseeable future. De Gaulle was just an artificial distortion, an exception (but himself wasn't very able in his industrial, social, agricultural policies).

France is the most right-wing country in western Europe (apart from perhaps Ireland, but Ireland is so different that a comparison is impossible).

Haha, here you are again with that, I waited a development last time to answer on it. Well, iirc, you base it on the fact that its labor policies have been right-wing for a while now.

So, if you haven't any other justification, first yes, but you start with a very leftist country and you go on the right doesn't mean you pass right wing, policies went in the right direction but the country remains on the left part of the spectrum, and one of the most leftist in Europe. Second, it's wrong, regularly France produced new leftist labor policies in the last years, like retirement at 60 years in 1981, or 35h under Jospin, just for the big ones.

And, when, more of that, you compare to other countries in Europe, and, hmm, let's compare to Germany for example, of which the last left that led the country during a long while was Schroëder, and then switch to a coalition led by Merkel, and then switch to Merkel + FDP, and when you look at, for example, Spanish and British left, and when you look at Italy, not to speak about the fact that our far-right is until now amongst the softer of Europe, if you don't produce other arguments, this 'France is the most right wing country of Europe' is lol lol lol to me.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

-The MoDem map is a joke: Bayrou would say it looks like an RPF one

Good one. . He should really retire and write books, he would actually be far more useful.

So, I had spoken about a big abstention, with a turnout between 45 and 50, and I was right, and it was the only point on which I was right.

I thought EE and UMP could benefit of it, I was wrong.

I thought FN couldn't benefit of the rightist climate on identity and unsecurity, because a now quite old Le Pen and a mixed leadership with his daughter, I was wrong. Apparently the good ol' figure worked.

So, now, here how it could be, I'm thinking about the fact that abstention could be still bigger. First because of EE voters, almost all the lists have merged and I think a good part of EE voters are not fans of PS, like me, the fact that polls remain triumphalist for PS wouldn't push them more.

Second, FN voters, if we assume a significant part of them were just to say 'F**k', then, they said 'F**k', done, not sure why these ones would mobilize themselves a second time. If we assume there is an other part in them that want rightist stuffs for their region, then, if they are not totally stupid, they'll vote UMP.

Third, independent/leftist voters who could have leaned abstention but who voted PS in the 1st run, to protest UMP, with such still triumphalist polls, them too, now they expressed their discontent of UMP in the 1st run they could also stay home in the 2nd one, thinking it's won.

So............maybe still good surprises for UMP possible!! Haha!

Well, you never know.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

People, in all the analysis and maps you do, don't forget to include the main point...abstention.

An analysis, and some maps that don't include this aspect are not worth it to describe the political situation in France and in each corner of France. In that sens, for maps for example, I think every data should be pondered with the abstention rate, and the percentages displayed, and colored, shouldn't be those of the official results, but these results pondered.

That's the most important political thing, more than the half of the country just doesn't vote.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

You're welcome to make your own maps, you know. Not everybody has time to make maps based on complex mathematical calculations and complex colour schemes. Plus, maps of abstention, which I've done in the past, don't tell us anything new. It's basically the same people who don't vote and so forth. No pattern is surprising, enlightening or even new.

Furthermore, a map calculated on inscrits and not exprimes, takes much longer and tells us exactly the same on a different scale of numbers. And it's more confusing.

.k .k. I wasn't giving orders, it's just that to have a good photos of politics in population that is to be done, especially when the majority of the population doesn't vote. For example, it would also gives some relativity to votes to the extremes, like it's not 20% of an area which is FN, but 20% of the 40% of voters, which is different.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

A voté. 2 votes (procuration), 2 Malvy.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Just saw that the TV5 channel, which I have on my cable TV, brings some live coverage from 7.45-9pm.

Probably won´t understand much but will watch it anyway.

There is France24 in English too, but seems they don't make a special TV coverage, or I haven't found it:

http://www.france24.com/en/aef_player_popup/france24_player#

France2, one of the 2 big, also broadcast it on the net:

http://info.france2.fr/elections/regionales-2010/videos/?idcategorie=mea2&type=direct

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

France2, one of the 2 big, also broadcast it on the net:

http://info.france2.fr/elections/regionales-2010/videos/?idcategorie=mea2&type=direct

lol, strike of a part of the crew, then cheap 'show'. France! Fidel to the reputation.

Maybe I'll swtich to TF1 if that's too cheap.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

JM Le Pen at 25 % and Marine at 23 %

Corsica is toss up and alsace is for UMP

Le Pen given at 22,5, on Sofres.

Royal 61%, she surely hopes to be the best PS score tonight.

Haven't heard NPdC.

Frêche owned it. 53%

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Not so bad for pecresse...

20% would not be bad, given the awful candidate she is.

Haven't heard NPdC.

52% for Percheron according to Opinionway.

Yes, but I really wait to see whether FN will be the 1st right party.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Haven't heard NPdC.

52% for Percheron according to Opinionway.

Yes, but I really wait to see whether FN will be the 1st right party.

No no no, Letard is at 25% and Marine at 22% (IIRC).

It remains huge for FN, but good they are not second, symbolically would have been awful.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.

Yeah, she's sober and sane. Mark the date, 'cause it's rare.

Well, in fact she found back her 'Madone style', the stuff why I think she remains a very serious option.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Cohn Bendit, playing her game now, currently speaking and pleading for a new big leftist force, which is good for Royal and not for Aubry's camp, which seems to still be  'PS first'.

Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.

Royal speech was not on tf1 and france 2...

I'm on France2, it was.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Frêche speaking on TF1. Bashing PS.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Frêche speaking on TF1. Bashing PS.

What crap is he saying, basically? Old cripple sh**t, hopefully gets run over by a truck soon.

Bashing PS, and FG. Calling for a new way to make populism politics...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

TF1:

Bertrand still pushing on abstention (well, basically he's right, but...), saying 'yay, 3 regions'.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

TF1:

Bertrand still pushing on abstention (well, basically he's right, but...), saying 'yay, 3 regions'.

Apparently they know they win Guyane.

He said that just after a confirmation of Réunion, then with Alsace and maybe Guyane yes, dunno.

Fillon speaking, admitting defeat, making a general speech blablabla...

Marine Le Pen on TF1 now.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Boring speech of Aubry, good ol' boring PS tone...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Le Pen on the media rant again against differences in estimates between FR2 and TF1.

yah, yah, lol.

Began on a soft blablabla, but now tougher then, though not that much offensive. Classical words.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Haha, Frêche burring UMP and PS, good for Royal.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Malvy got 70.07% in Hautes-Pyrénées. Impressive, even there.

Malvy final score will be interesting, to see whether one could make more than Royal.