France General Discussion

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

He effectively managed his answer pretty well on France2, and chose the good defense saying that he didn't want his victory subject to all this suspicion. And of course he did it with all his great talent, as I already said once that guy might represent the worst aspect of politics that we haven't seen for years now, populism is on. Seduction and flattery in politics pushed to the max, with a great rhetoric, good repartee, and most of all, with a lot put on sentiments. In short he is a wonderful mix of Sarkozy, Copé and Royal (for the sentiments and emotions).

Damn...

And the cool thing being that we are here with wonderful media to help politicians to go this way. David Pujadas, in good father, borderline complaining him, let him display his speech, not even trying to interrogate him on what was the technically the main part of this debate and on which most of the arguments should have been, the fact that maybe he wasn't fit for this job, nothing about it, the guy could quietly go on how he has just been illegitimately slandered here and didn't want a victory with suspicion...

And cooler, just after the news, we have a big political talk show "A vous de juger" in prime time. And we have this cool Arlette Chabot, to spend time on how is the friendship between Hortefeux and Sarkozy. And still later, that same Hortefeux to say how he has been injured of the slander against him too about the racist video, while the talk was clearly racist, and that still cool Arlette Chabot to let him speak, not trying to go further...

Politics today...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Quote of the Year:

"L'UMP se porte bien, comme le montre les élections partielles"
-Alain Marleix

lololololol HAHA LOL ROFL LOL HAHA LOL Wow.

Happy to see that it makes others laugh too...

What poor jokes they do with affirmation of that style. Hortefeux saying that he has been hurt and offended by the polemics about his video wasn't bad too.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Even if Jean Sarkozy withdrew from the presidential office of the EPAD, the harm is done.
I think the right is now down for the remaining 2 and a half years of Sarkozy's mandate.

The only way for him to be reelected is a continuing division of the left and the centre-left.

The quote comes from 'France Regionals 2010' but i think it's more accurate for me to answer it here.

Nah, Sarkozy has a last card for him, the one of all French president of the 5th republic, the one of foreign affairs, a realm in which he seems to be very interested more of that.

If Iran continue to make last the pleasure with the IAAE, I wonder how we will avoid Israeli strikes, or international ones there next year, and I'd even say in the beginning of next year. If ever, our Sarko will be on the first line, in both cases, and our military would be very engaged there, we would be in a climate of war, something we didn't know for a long time now, and the last flavor of that we recently knew have been the 10 French soldiers killed by once in Afghanistan, and we all know the shock it has been here.

If ever this option was valid, the French political class would be just upside down. Though, for sarko I think it would be 50/50, or very bad, or very good for him...

Ah, and, about the present:

Yay Jean-Pierre!! And from the Senate more of that!!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Am watching Moscovici on France24, it's really not beautiful to see ambition when it can't be masked by ideas, really... Had the same impression when I saw Hollande recently on Canal+.

And about Jean-Pierre (Raffarin), yes, it's good to see that not all the UMP is Xavierbertrandisé (that one turned really pathetic and quite nasty, may someone show him a video of when he was interesting, before he joined Sarkozy, for example as health minister, that may awake him, he really passed to 'the dark side of the force' since...). It's good to see that people wonder and dare to speak, thanks Jean-Pierre, thanks the 23 senators, thanks the 63 deputies, just because they dare saying what they think, thank you not to participate to this big enterprise of f**king the collective smartness of people, led by Xavier Bertrand, Frédéric Lefevbre, and so forth...

Thank you just for that.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Personally, I saw Moscovici during "Mots croisés" one week ago and I found him very clever.

Not saying he is not clever, just that he has a lot of troubles to manage his ambition and that it just makes him very weak. And that displaying ambition without having the slightest idea to propose that's really not beautiful. Ambition in the name of something can be, nude ambition isn't, that's indecent...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

http://www.france24.com/fr/20091104-elysee-gouvernement-depenses-avenir-recycler-aides-banques-grand-emprunt

In short the article says that France previouses to use the 13 billions of help given to the banks for crisis that they will pay back to the state for the "Big State Loan".

Amusing thinking that one part of the majority already thinks that the previous sum wasn't enough.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

But still, it's a stupid CSA poll for an election which is 2012.

It works without CSA. At best it shows some balances of power between big leaders, some kind of preferences between 2 people, but when people are in an actual election mood, that's different.

Though the political analysis is rather crappy and based on their polling. But, yeah, Alsatian Protestants don't vote like Cevennol Protestants.

Most of all: pardon, but, who cares of the political position of protestants in France, if you know what i mean.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Though the political analysis is rather crappy and based on their polling. But, yeah, Alsatian Protestants don't vote like Cevennol Protestants.

Most of all: pardon, but, who cares of the political position of protestants in France, if you know what i mean.

Sorry, but I do. Apologies if you don't approve.

Nah, was just to mention their very very very small number in France.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Listening François Hollande on France5. Socialists are really intellectually totally lost...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Listening François Hollande on France5. Socialists are really intellectually totally lost...

Though not the brightest bulb in the PS, François Hollande is miles smarter than his ex. Sarah Segolene Palin-Royal.

It depends in what sense, in terms of how to be elected today Ségolène - Eva Peron - Holy Mary - Jeanne D'Arc - Royal, beats everybody in PS imo. I know she isn't trendy in polls, but i maintain she's the most able to get elected, as far as today.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Eric Raoult (a famous UMP deputy of the Parisian suburb) saying that writers who obtained the Prix Goncourt (the biggest price for writers in France) should execute a duty of self-censorship (<<<not criticizing the political power), after that someones recently found statements of the last recent Prix Goncourt, Marie N'Diaye, criticizing the "France of Sarkozy" and she obviously said she maintained her statements, which I tend to share.

On. which. planet. is. the. UMP. currently. living. ... ?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Listening François Hollande on France5. Socialists are really intellectually totally lost...

Though not the brightest bulb in the PS, François Hollande is miles smarter than his ex. Sarah Segolene Palin-Royal.

It depends in what sense, in terms of how to be elected today Ségolène - Eva Peron - Holy Mary - Jeanne D'Arc - Royal, beats everybody in PS imo. I know she isn't trendy in polls, but i maintain she's the most able to get elected, as far as today.

No. She is the most able to get nominated by PS members because of all her "anti-establishment" blablabla... But then she will be crushed by Sarko. And being crushed by a so unpopular President means being really dumb.

Let's trust the future to surprise us.

Anyways, in the different scenarios i tend to envisage, yes, Sarko keeps a lot of chances, though, it would remain some kind of 50/50 to me, according to all the different things that could happen.

And, hmm, I tend to think that Sarkozy became beyond unpopular, in fact i tend to think most people see him as ridiculous, and don't really like him, but i tend to think that people are so fed up with all what's happening (and this autumn provided some more matter...) that they would be in a kind of "oh well with all of that, we're screwed now anyways...", or something like that, Sarkozy would be seen as a kind of unpowerfull clown, more or less bad according to people...

I maintain his last card is the foreign affairs, I maintain Iran remains an hot stuff, I maintain the next year will be important. When you listen to his speeches about that, that are the only ones that still have the "blow" of the 2007 campaign, and that remains the realm in which he can still make think people that he can have some importance and some influence, especially since it's easy for him to play the 'bad cop' to take an ascendant on Obama.

You people here may know the weekly poll of the 20H of France2, through interwebs. Each week they ask a question through their website, most of the questions have an average of 10,000/20,000 answers, never more. Except once, they asked about Iran if people considered if it was an actual threat, and what happened (and it has been the only time it happened): more than 300,000 people replied to the poll, people who thought it was a threat were slightly dominating. Seems to show there is a concern here...

I once again think that's an affair to keep in mind to wonder about the future of our political situation. The consequences of what could happen there and the role that Sarkozy could play there could have multiple consequences on the long term...

Other than that, if nothing special happens, yes, Sarkozy would have a lot of chances to own it...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Sarkozy vs. Strauss-Khan/Delanoe/[insert a sane socialist here] would result in a socialist win, if the situation doesn't improve very significantly in the next two years.

That's just the opposite of what I think.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Sarkozy vs. Strauss-Khan/Delanoe/[insert a sane socialist here] would result in a socialist win, if the situation doesn't improve very significantly in the next two years.

That's just the opposite of what I think.

Really ??

Yes, you know, and I was still thinking about it in my bed yesterday night, that sane guys are the old school, Martine's friends, Jospin time, this old school that people just can't see anymore, not the slightest of them would have any chance in an election against someone of the UMP, no matter who he is. Ségolène Royal succeeded to cut with this generation.

The only other sane name not identified with this generation is Valls, but he would appear to close of Sarkozy, and in a posture of chief he would become too much a kind of excited kitty I think.

Actually, if there are not some special big events Sarkozy owns it, and according to what could happen he could also own it in case of big events. He very well understood how to play with the opinion and all the error of the autumn are certainly still more teachings to him, in order that people have, like I said in my preceding post, more resignation than protestation, at least as far as today, a resentment could still explode in case of a crash.

Thus, yes, if nothing special happens, imo Sarkozy can be almost sure to own it, and if something big happens that still remains 50/50, own it by resignation of people, in electoral terms, 85% of turnout could become a far dream at the next presidency...

Ok, there might be a slight way for that a DSK or a Delanoë wins, but the country would have to be upside down and both Royal and Sarkozy would have to have been highly discredited. Though, when I say it i don't really believe in it, but, ultimately. I really think the big winner for the future is the abstention.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, I still don't understand what's so bad with being an "old-style" socialist. Jospin was a successful Prime Minister, and the "elephants" so criticized now were very competent people, at least a great part of them.
"New-style" (Ségo-style) socialists are just irresponsible populists who, behing their obsession of "changing things", have nothing concrete to say, nothing intelligent to think. The killed the PS, wereas it had good chances to easily win after another failure UMP administration and with a candidate that many people considered a far rightist (which isn't so far from the reality).

Well, yes they are smart. In a way. First they never succeeded to rule the problems of ego, they never succeeded to make a team, Mitterand could easily put them in rank 2 by 2, but Mitterand is no more here. There are high quality people there, Fabius certainly being the best, but the hell, they are f**kingly stupid in the way they are not able to make a team of them, instead of an accumulation of small chiefs who just represent them and their friends (when you come to think about it, the fact that socialists are not able to make a team has something to do with irony!). This is the first problem, the ego.

Second problem, the story telling. We're in France, that leftist nation, that nation that believed in Mitterand that could changer la vie (change the life), actually when you speak with people in their 50s about that, there is a lot of disappointment, Mitterand time burned the hope and the credit that a leftist speech could have. And the Jospin generation have been a continuation of that, they have been too much pragmatic for what a country like France could wait from the left, and especially in the speeches, the way of speaking they had at that epoch.

By being that pragmatic the French left definitely lost its identity, and more of that, they had intellectual problems to endorse this pragmatism.

In short, they didn't have the slightest coherence between their acts and their speech, and a miss of coherence is a big flaw in democracy. The Jospin generation never really managed to overcome this by clearly endorsing pragmatism, and those who would have liked it like DSK or Delanoë always hesitated to make it with strength, thus are no more credible. No more credible in a leftist speech, no more credible in a pragmatic speech.

So, here you are with a combination of strong egos with mild speeches, the worst possible combination.

Royal, by some 'populo-sociological' ways, some more pragmatism and a clearly displayed ego thus a clear leadership overcame all of this.

Meanwhile, Sarkozy championed pragmatism in its speeches, and the French right uses to be more pragmatic than the French left anyways. And here we are now.

That's why I think that just big contextual events that would discredit Sarkozy can prevent him to go further, or someone that comes with new constructive ideas...anybody?

There's little concrete evidence to show that voters want to kill the elephants and replace them with stupid hacks like Hamon, Valls, Royal and her sect.

Yeah, I know, that's just a personal interpretation and i explained my whole point above.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

But now the leftist/pragmatic divide makes no sense since with recent events, being pragmatic means being to the left. That doesn't mean we will nationalize and so forth, but just that Welfare State ideology seems again a serious option.

Sure, but the right is still able to manage the egos, they still have a clear chief (even if this one is not in a great time, still). And the Jospin generation is now stigmatized by all what I've said, I just think people no more want to hear us, plus they're a bit like some "fossils" in this epoch, they are of the "pre-2007 era", 2007 changed a lot of things in the way to make politics here, and its champions are Sarkozy and Royal.

Anyways, your positive comments about Fabius (one of the most opportunistic people around here, having no problem to switch from the "leftist" to the "pragmatic" side and then back to the leftist...) surprised me a lot. As for Royal, none of her word makes sense, and the other's egocentrism is nothing compare to her.

Yes, yes, my positive comment on Fabius just concerned his smartness to analyze and speak about issues, in terms of managing the ego and finding a clear place, yes, yes, he maybe one of the worst.

And for Royal, that's what i said, yes egocentrism is present, and to the hell, but she clearly displays it she "assume" (in the french sens, haven't found an english word to make a good equivalent of it, if someone knows...), and that's a strength in democracy, thus she's able to have a clear leadership, one of the big flaws of PS...

And concerning the sens, today the appearance matters more than the sens...

There has always been a gap between rhetoric and policy in the PS.

Yeah but Mitterand and then Jospin gave a new dimension to it, and really burned the leftist story-telling.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Of course, the same comment obviously applies to the SFIO, more so perhaps.

Not that I am very well versed in before Mitterand period, but, euh, well, as SFIO leaders that had power Léon Blum comes here, and his acts were coordinated to his speeches, then as a leader  Mendès comes here too, though his passage marked more the international affairs than socio-economic issues.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Of course, the same comment obviously applies to the SFIO, more so perhaps.

Not that I am very well versed in before Mitterand period, but, euh, well, as SFIO leaders that had power Léon Blum comes here, and his acts were coordinated to his speeches, then as a leader  Mendès comes here too, though his passage marked more the international affairs than socio-economic issues.

Mendès was a radical.

Héhé, thanks, the most interesting thing to retain in my preceding post were then that I'm not very well versed in the history of the SFIO, and that Blum comes as a SFIO leader who gave some concrete realizations to leftist speech.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Of course, the same comment obviously applies to the SFIO, more so perhaps.

Not that I am very well versed in before Mitterand period, but, euh, well, as SFIO leaders that had power Léon Blum comes here, and his acts were coordinated to his speeches, then as a leader  Mendès comes here too, though his passage marked more the international affairs than socio-economic issues.

Guy Mollet. Need I continue?

I understood it as if they had never been a real leader in SFIO and/or as if there had always been a gap between speech and act in SFIO.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Of course, the same comment obviously applies to the SFIO, more so perhaps.

Not that I am very well versed in before Mitterand period, but, euh, well, as SFIO leaders that had power Léon Blum comes here, and his acts were coordinated to his speeches, then as a leader  Mendès comes here too, though his passage marked more the international affairs than socio-economic issues.

Guy Mollet. Need I continue?

I understood it as if they had never been a real leader in SFIO and/or as if there had always been a gap between speech and act in SFIO.

I hope that you're not saying that there wasn't a gap between rhetoric and policy with Guy Mollet

Léon Blum!

Antonio's post summed it up.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hmm:

Mitterrand and Jospin have been the only PS 'leaders'. And do note that I only talked about the PS.

Of course, the same comment obviously applies to the SFIO, more so perhaps.

Not that I am very well versed in before Mitterand period, but, euh, well, as SFIO leaders that had power Léon Blum comes here, and his acts were coordinated to his speeches, then as a leader  Mendès comes here too, though his passage marked more the international affairs than socio-economic issues.

Guy Mollet. Need I continue?

I understood it as if they had never been a real leader in SFIO and/or as if there had always been a gap between speech and act in SFIO.

I think it was clear.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I have no clue at all what your point is, but I know that my point is that there is a gap between rhetoric and policy in the PS, and there was a similar gap in the later SFIO, aka the post-war SFIO.

Please either clearly deny or agree with my point.

Ok, now you came with the element. You at first didn't precise post-war SFIO, or later SFIO, otherwise I wouldn't have spoken of Léon Blum, because my knowledge of this might not be perfect but i'm still part of those who know that 1936 is before 1945...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Haha @ what happened this week end with Royal. The mistress has corrected the lil boy.

The most funny is that while she has now all the small chiefs of PS bitching on her, i think that what she has done can be really good for her. She came to impose herself like a chief. That's how she appears on TV, a clear chief, that corrects the naughty boys. A chief, some clarity, everything the PS misses...

Ségolène Royal is creating the unity of PS...against her! And that's still good for her I think. All that small chiefs with egos and unclear with their ambitions, all those that fed up people so much, she has everyone against them now. And they are surely very happy of what's happening now, not seeing it could still be worse for them to shoot her like they do after what happened this week end.

Go Eva, go Jeanne, go Feminine version of Jesus Christ, the people is waiting for you...

Well, outside of joke. I really tend to think such things are good for her. Politics is the power, the power is the strength, in the PS the strength is Ségolène Royal nowadays. Not saying it's a good strength, ya know the movie, 'there is the bright and the dark side of the force'.

Go Anakin-Royal!

Outside of this, lol @ the last poll on DSK.

Isn't 'funny', 'weird', 'ironical', that something that appears so much as something that could be more or less a sock puppet of the Elysée, the pollster Opinion Way, publishes a poll that gives DSK still more winner against Sarkozy than a recent one published by CSA? Isn't that weird that a pollster that really seems to be close to the Elysée gives some more strength to the guy that "everybody see as the best leader against Sarkozy"? That maybe that like me, they tend to think that DSK wouldn't have a lot of chances against Sarkozy, and that that would be cool to make him grow in the PS, to shoot them a bit more...

Anyways, not really caring about eventual operations like that, just passed through my mind, would tend to find it blatant, but that may be not, rather find stuffs like that amusing if that's accurate...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I disagree with your opinion of Royal, for reasons I've already expressed.

While OpinionWay is close to the right generally, I haven't seen any major problems in its polling like I've seen with, say, CSA. CSA, for example, is a crap pollster which overestimates the left and the FN. I don't like this "omgdz right-wing pollster conspiracy!!!" much because I haven't seen much bias in Opinion Way, their polls are interesting though sometimes they have dumb questions and slightly weird result, but I don't like the idea that Opinion Way is part of a vast right-wing movement.

As for DSK, the PS is certainly secretly afraid of him. Hollande said yesterday that he wants the primaries asap, like 2011 or so, and he clearly said that they will not be postponed to make room for DSK. The PS bigwigs want their place in the sun and a DSK candidacy is not to their liking.

As I said, concerning Opinion Way, I tend to think they could be rather close of Elysée but i don't care that's much, that's just a totally personal assumption and not a big deal for me anyways.

Concerning DSK, yeah, hadn't think about it, could make other big egos following Hollande position to wipe out DSK, yes, he clearly stated he didn't really care if the calendar couldn't allow DSK to come in. So, could still be an operation to push all these other big weak egos to wipe out DSK, thus could be done to give more chances to one of them, who are seen as weaker. Anyways, no matter what it is, such things are not a big deal for me, i just 'amuse' myself of such possibilities...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

After Tony Musulin, they got the second Robin Wood. Not a good time for heroes...