Why is The USA shifting leftward

[tallguy23]

Gen Y becoming more and more powerful in terms of the electorate.  The Democrats have done a much better job of catering (or at least giving the appearance as such) to Gen Y.

There is very little that the GOP has to offer Gen Y (again, at least in appearance).

This is a huge reason.

Gen Y is now the largest group in the workforce and the overall population. By 2020/2024 they'll be the biggest chunk of voters too.

[tallguy23]

most country, when young = liberal, getting older = become conservative

That's been disproved several times, hasn't it?  For example, Bush 41 ran better with the youth vote than the senior vote, and seniors voted to the left of the general electorate in 2000.  Most studies find that people make their partisan decisions based on who was in power when they were around 18.  Older voters now remember the Eisenhower years and are very Republican ... but their parents weren't.

You're right. This is largely a myth. Some people get a bit more conservative on some issues, while others may get more liberal on others. There is no real way of telling which way it will go unless you can predict future events.

What there is evidence of is that people largely lean towards the ideology/political party that they favored when coming of age. Kids that grew up during Reagan were more conservative, while kids that grew up during Clinton/Bush/Obama were a lot more liberal. These people (Millennials) will likely continue voting Democratic as they age just like the others. (I can't post my source due to new account, but search "pewresearch the politics of american generations")

I think the reason some think people get more conservative as they age is because for the past 20 - 25 years, the younger generation has skewed much more Democratic/liberal whereas the generation before them were conservative. The result is all those GenX'ers/some boomers who are now old are still conservative and it leaves that impression. However, it only leaves an impression and is not a trend.

In addition, generational replacement theories also explain why Democrats have a presidential election advantage and Republicans have a midterm advantage. Older people constitute a lot more of the midterm electorate and because those people grew up during the Carter/Reagan years (along with some boomers and the silent generation), they lean Republican. Once the Millennial generation gets older and minorities continue to move out of urban areas, Democrats will once again have the advantage in midterms. Likewise, young voters and minorities show up in far greater numbers in presidential elections, and thus the Democratic advantage.

It's funny because Republicans had a lock on presidential elections from 1968 - 1988, holding the White House for 20 of those 24 years, yet they never controlled all of Congress once during that time. Reagan's wave got him the Senate for 3 cycles, which was actually a preview of their upcoming Congressional dominance. I think what happens is the dominant parties first dominate presidential elections, then their coalition grows older and begins to dominate midterms as well. However, by this time, they most likely have lost their lock on the presidency and the cycle restarts in favor of the other party -- Unless the dominant party manages to "restart" their cycle (like the 1896 McKinley alignment).

Totally agree with this sentiment. There's also a theory that if a rising generation votes 3 times in a row for one party, they'll be mostly locked into supporting that party. Hence why many say the Millennials are staunchly in the Dem camp now.