Israel general discussion

[danny]

Considering Mofaz wanted to enter the current coalition I don't think there will be much trouble for Kadima to enter the next one. Kadima should also be fine with being in coalition with Shas so a Likud+Kadima+Yisrael Beitenu+Shas+UTJ coalition is quite likely. It's also possible to replace Shas and UTJ with Lapid but I don't trust Israeli politicians with excluding the haredim.

[danny]

Another from Globes:
Likud: 29
Yisrael Beitenu: 16
Kadima: 15
Labour: 12
Lapid: 9
Shas: 9
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Meretz:4
Jewish Home:3
Arab parties: 11

[danny]

Now that the elections are likely to happen sometime between August and October there should be more polls coming.
Here is one from Yediot:

Likud: 30
Labour: 18
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Kadima: 11
There is a Future (the new name for Lapid's party): 11
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
Deri: 3
National Union: 3
Jewish Home: 2
Independence: 0
Arab parties:11

[danny]

And another:

Likud: 31
Labour: 17
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
There Is A Future: 12
Kadima: 10
Shas: 8
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
National Union: 4
Jewish Home: 2
Deri: 2
Independence: 0
Arab parties: 11

The election will probably be on the September 4.

[danny]

Could you explain why Netanyahu would want an early election? I'm not sure why not just wait until early 2013, when it was supposed to be held.

The closer you get to an election the less incentive parties have to stay in it and the more incentive to leave to position themselves for the elections.

The current problem is with the new law replacing the Tal law (dealing with religious exemptions from the army) Yisrael beitenu decided to propose their own law and threatened to leave the coalition if it didn't pass, but if Netanyahu would agree than the Haredi parties would have left themselves. In either case the government would have fallen. So Netanyahu could either try to prolong the government as much as possible but have it fall apart soon anyway, or preempt this and decide on an election date himself. The latter makes him look stronger and more competent coming into the elections.

While it might not really be Netanyahu's true wish to have an early election, it's still a good time for him. he is doing well in the polls and he would have a lot leverage in the negotiation for the new coalition, since all the parties from Labour rightwards are realistic potential coalition partners (excluding possibly the National Union).

[danny]

Wow- Kadima has fallen... what is "There Is A Future"? I've tried to look it up...

Yair Lapid's new party.

[danny]

Poll conducted yesterday (after the new of new coalition):

Likud: 33
Labour: 19
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Kadima: 11
Shas: 8
Future: 6
UTJ: 6
Meretz:6
Jewish Home- National Union: 5
Arab parties- 10

Do you support the new coalition agreement:

Yes: 39.6%
No: 31.9
Don't know: 28.4%

Who is most suitable to be prime minister:

Bibi: 39.8%
Shelly: 11.3%
Lapid: 7%
Mofaz: 4.5%
Lieberman: 4.2%

[danny]

New poll:

Likud- 30
Labour-20
Future- 17
Yisrael Beitenu- 12
Shas-6
National Union- 6
Meretz- 6
UTJ- 5
Hadash-4
Kadima- 3 (lol)
Jewish Home- 3
Balad- 3
UAL- 3
Independence- 2

Lapid seems to be the biggest gainer from Kadima entering the coalition.

[danny]

It seems the next election will continue the tradition of Israeli centrist parties quickly rising up and then disappearing and being replaced by a new centrist party.

[danny]

New poll from globes:

Likud: 33
Labour: 19
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Shas: 8
Future: 8
Kadima: 7
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Jewish Home: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
UAL-TAAL: 3
Independence: 2

Relatively Better for Kadima and worse for Lapid.

[danny]

New poll by channel 10:

Likud- 29
Labour- 17
Yisrael Beitenu- 15
Kadima- 10
Future- 10
Shas- 9
UTJ- 6
Meretz- 4
Hadash- 4
Jewish Home- 3
National Union- 3
UAL- 3
Balad- 3
Aryeh Deri- 2
Independence- 2

[danny]

What is Labor's position on the Israel-Palestine conflict?  I was going to say "looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual," but then I couldn't find anything in Labor's Wiki page.  I like to keep my snarks factually accurate.

Likud has been ahead in all the polls for a long time so you can snark away.

As for Labour's positions, they are more dovish than Likud but to you they would still count as HPs, as they still backed the government in regards to the Marmara, and were members of the coalition during Cast Lead and The Second Lebanon war.

[danny]

Alright, so...

Looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual.

I imagine that anyone but the 3 Arab parties would be considered horrible by you, so you can be sure that it will remain that way.

[danny]

Alright, so...

Looks like the HPs are ahead in the polls, as usual.

I imagine that anyone but the 3 Arab parties would be considered horrible by you, so you can be sure that it will remain that way.

Not quite.  I like Hadash, which isn't an exclusively Arab party.

I said the 3 Arab parties parties for a reason. I do that because a large majority of the electorate is Arab, the same way you can call all the other parties Jewish, even though their electorate isn't made up entirely of Jews.

[danny]

Actually, one question I've had for a while: why is Labor always so obedient and hesitant to oppose things like Operation Cast Lead, the Second Lebanon War, etc?  I really hope it's not because their supporters will abandon them if they do. 

While I am sure they would lose support, I don't think this is the reason. I think they simply support those things. There really isn't much difference between Likud, Labour and Kadima when it comes to the use of force against the enemy, the differences are on other issues.

[danny]

Actually, one question I've had for a while: why is Labor always so obedient and hesitant to oppose things like Operation Cast Lead, the Second Lebanon War, etc?  I really hope it's not because their supporters will abandon them if they do. 

While I am sure they would lose support, I don't think this is the reason. I think they simply support those things. There really isn't much difference between Likud, Labour and Kadima when it comes to the use of force against the enemy, the differences are on other issues.

But why not at least to varying degrees?  It's pretty shocking that so many people on all parts of the political spectrum would support Operation Cast Lead and the 2nd Lebanon war in their entirety. 

It was to varying degrees, It's just that in Labour's case, they were in the coalition and led by a relatively similar party on this issue so it makes sense for them to support it. Meretz to the left supported some action, but went against it somewhere in the middle. Netanyahu, on the right said after Cast Lead that he would have continued with it longer and said that the government ended it too soon.

[danny]

A poll from Yediot that looks bad for Bibi:

Likud 27
Labour 21
Yisrael Beitenu 13
Future (Lapid) 13
Shas 10
Kadima 7
National Union 6
UTJ 6
Meretz 4
Mafdal (Jewish Home) 4
Hadash 4
UAL 4
Independence 2

On the other hand we have this poll:

Likud 37
Labour 16
Yisrael Beitenu 13
Future 9
Shas 7
Kadima 6
UTJ 6
Meretz 6
Jewish Home 5
National Union 4
"Arab parties" 11

[danny]

A poll from Yediot that looks bad for Bibi:

Likud 27
Labour 21
Yisrael Beitenu 13
Future (Lapid) 13
Shas 10
Kadima 7
National Union 6
UTJ 6
Meretz 4
Mafdal (Jewish Home) 4
Hadash 4
UAL 4
Independence 2

What kind of government would come out of an election like that?

There are quite a few options, so I really can't say.

[danny]

Bibi still would have a majority, although he wouldn't have margin for more measures, as religious parties would be decisive. But losing 1st place to Yehimovich would be embarrassing. If Netanyahu is desiring to go for a non-religious coalition with Labour, Future, Kadima and Independence, he would get 70 seats, but it would backfire a lot at Likud and make Lieberman happy.

I think YB would be a more likely partner than Labour, and even if Labour is there that doesn't necessarily exclude YB from also being there. YB is actually a natural partner to have in a secular coalition, especially one headed by Likud.

[danny]

So, with that result, a Likud-YB-Lapid-Kadima-Independence or a Likud-YB-Lapid-Kadima coalition is likely?

Yes, that is certainly a possibility, but so is including the haredi parties instead of Lapid.

[danny]

Another one from Globes:

Likud 27
Labour 19
Yisrael Beitenu 15
Future 13
Shas 9
UTJ 6
Jewish Home 5
Naional Union 4
Kadima 4
Meretz 4
Independence 3
Arab Parties 11


The way Kadima is going they might not even pass the election threshold of 2% by the time the elections arrive.

[danny]

The Israel institute of democracy made a big poll (with an English version) including many interesting political questions and subsamples if anyone's interested.

[danny]

New poll from globes:

Likud: 28
Labour: 19
Yisrael Beitenu: 16
Future (Lapid): 11
Shas: 10
UTJ: 6
Jewish Home: 5
Kadima: 4
National Union: 4
Meretz: 4
Independence: 2
"Arab parties": 11

[danny]

Can you please explain how Kadima droppepd so low...

It has been a year long process in which everything went badly for them.

At the beginning of last summer Kadima was doing about the same as Likud at the top. Then came the social (economic) protests which highlighted the fact that there aren't big differences between them and Likud on these issues. then came the Labour primaries, in which shelly was elected leader instead of the terribly unpopular Barak. Shelly used the protests to her advantage, and is good at differentiating herself from Bibi on these issues.

  Then came the release of Gilad Shalit, which was popular with Kadima's potential voters, but which Livni opposed. After that Lapid started a new party, which presented a new centrist alternative to Kadima, and took many votes from them. Then there were the Kadima primaries in which the even less popular Mofaz won.

  Mofaz went on to be a terrible leader, promising in clear terms that he wouldn't join the government and support new elections. Immediately after that he broke his promises and joined the coalition and saved the government from collapse and new elections. This coalition went badly and Kadima quickly left, which made Kadima's entry look even worse.

All this was on top of the fact that centrist voters are very fickle, with a history of centrist parties coming and the disappearing, like Shinui, Gil, Dash, The Centre Party and The third way.

[danny]

I missed this poll by Haaretz from last week:

Likud: 28
Labour: 20
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Shas: 11
Kadima:8
Future (Lapid): 8
UTJ: 7
Jewish Home-National Union: 6
Meretz: 5
UAL-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Balad: 2
Independence: 2