Israel general discussion

[danny]

now that we are heading for elections, there will be many polls until the elections, with two new polls out today.

starting with Ma'ariv:

Likud: 29
Labour: 17
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 17
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Shas: 10
Kadima: 6
UTJ: 5
Jewish Home: 5
UAL-TAAL: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 3
Balad: 3
Independence: 2
National Union: 2

Ha'aretz:

Likud: 29
Labour: 19
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11
Shas: 10
Jewish Home-National Union: 8
Kadima: 7
UTJ: 6
UAL-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Meretz: 4
Balad: 2

[danny]

The Ma'ariv poll also tested a possible Livni-Olmert party (because we have such a shortage of Centre, centre-left parties...):

Likud: 29
Labour: 16
Yesh Atid: 13
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Livni-Olmert: 10
Shas: 9
Jewish Home: 5
UTJ: 5
UAL-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Meretz: 3
Kadima: 3
Balad: 3
National Union: 2
Independence: 2

[danny]

And another from the Knesset channel:

Likud: 29
Labour: 23
Yesh Atid: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Shas: 9
UTJ: 5
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
UAL-TAAL: 3
Kadima: 3

[danny]

Would Lapid Jr. be willing to go into a right-wing coalition w/ any of the religious parties?

He would with the religious Zionists. The Ultra-Orthodox are more of a problem, and I don't see that happening.

[danny]

The Ma'ariv poll also tested a possible Livni-Olmert party (because we have such a shortage of Centre, centre-left parties...):

Has there been discussion about this happening? Any statements from Livni or Olmert or just media chatter?

Nothing direct, but there have been vague statements from the two about considering running in the elections.

[danny]

Re: that latest poll: is there actually any possibility at all of Labour coming out on top?

This is about the gap that Kadima closed during the last campaign, so it is possible. But just like with Kadima, if the right has a majority, than it may not help them.

[danny]

Massive fall for Kadima, eh? Does that have something to do with that short lived coalition with Likud they were involved in earlier in the year, perhaps?

Unfortunate that Likud has such a firm lead.

that is only one factor of many, see this link for more.

[danny]

How are some of the smaller, newer parties doing (obviously not counting Yesh Atid, we know about them)? Things like Atzmaut (Barak's party), Tikun (apparently, Aryeh Deri was forming a party), Am Shalem (some random Shas breakoff), and that weird Arab Zionist party Wikipedia has an article on founded by an ex-Arab member of Likud named Sarhan Bader (he's calling it the Israeli Arab Nationalist Party)?

Atzmaut- some of the polls give it the minimum 2 seats, some have it failing to pass the minimum threshold.

Aryeh Deri- It is looking more likely that Deri rejoins Shas.

Am Shalem- Is currently in talks about merging with the Jewish Home and National Union to create a broad religious Zionist party.

Sarhan Bader- I have never heard of him, so I searched google. There doesn't seem to be anything about him except for that wikipedia article which comes from a Jerusalem post article about him. Looking in Hebrew only gave a an article where he's in a list of candidates running for elections in his village council, but nothing to say that he ever actually founded a party. maybe there is more about him in Arabic, but I am not optimistic.

[danny]

The Jerusalem Post managed to get Likud to "lose" the election, by combining Olmert-Livni-Lapid-Kadima:

New Centrist Party: 31
Likud: 27
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Labour: 12
Shas: 11
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Jewish Home: 4
Hadash: 4
UAL-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3

(Meretz and the independence party don't pass the electoral threshold).

[danny]

New poll by Walla:

Likud: 30
Labour: 19
Yesh Atid: 14
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Shas: 9
Kadima: 6
UTJ: 6
Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 5
Hadash: 4
UAL-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3
National Union: 2
Independence: 1

With an Olmert-Livni-Mofaz-Lapid party:

Likud : 29
New Centre Party: 23
Labour:18
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Shas: 9
UTJ: 6
Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
UAL-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3
National Union: 2
Independence: 1

[danny]

A marriage poll from mako:

Do you support civil marriage in Israel:
Yes: 71.5%
No: 23.8%
No opinion: 4.7%

Do you support same-sex marriage in Israel:
Yes: 55%
No: 38.4%
No opinion: 6.6%

Do you think same-sex marriages should be allowed as part of the Rabbinate:
Yes: 25.8%
No: 59.6%
No opinion: 14.6%

[danny]

Regardless of how people feel, none of this is happening any time soon.

[danny]

Time to revive this thread with a new poll from Globes:

Likud Beitenu: 33
Labour: 18
Jewish Home: 13
Yesh Atid: 12
Meretz: 11
Shas: 10
UTJ: 8
The Movement: 4
Hadash: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3

[danny]

Keep in mind that the minimum threshold is in the process of being raised from 2% to 4%, so small parties will have to merge to pass it, which means that the parties won't look the same in the next election (not that they ever do anyway...).

[danny]

New poll from Haaretz:

Favourability (Last months poll in brackets):

Bibi:
favourable: 44% (45%)
unfavourable: 43% (45%)

Lapid:
favourable: 14% (25%)
unfavourable: 75% (63%) LOL...

Boogey ya'alon:
favourable: 46% (54%)
unfavourable: 16% (20%)


Who is the most suitable to be prime minister?
Bibi: 63% (56%)
Shelly: 12% (15%)
Lapid: 5% (7%)

How would you define Bibi's handling of the Iranian issue on the world stage?
very good: 17%
good: 41%
not so good: 23%
not good at all: 9%
don't know: 10%

Knesset seats:
Likud: 32 (31)
Labour: 17 (17)
Jewish Home: 15 (15)
Meretz: 12 (10)
Yesh Atid: 10 (16)
Shas: 10 (8 )
UTJ: 6 (7)
The Movement: 5 (3)
UAL: 5 (5)
Hadash: 4 (5)
Kadima: 2 (2)
Balad: 2 (2)

[danny]

Why is Lapid so unpopular? Is it because of his coalition with Bibi, or a different reason?

It's a tradition for Centrist parties to rise and fall quickly, so this is normal. Add to that the fact that he is finance minister, which means that you're the face of any tax hikes or spending cuts.

[danny]

Why is Lapid so unpopular? Is it because of his coalition with Bibi, or a different reason?

It's a tradition for Centrist parties to rise and fall quickly, so this is normal. Add to that the fact that he is finance minister, which means that you're the face of any tax hikes or spending cuts.

And you're forgetting that Orthodox Jews hate him for being out of government.

You mean ultra-orthodox, but they never liked him in the first place, even when he was popular.

[danny]

Haaretz poll regarding gay rights:

If you were an employer would you hire someone who is gay for a job?
yes: 82%
no: 14%
Don't know: 4%

Do you support a legal recognition of same-sex marriage?
yes: 59%
no: 33%
don't know: 7%

Should a discussion about sexual orientation be allowed in schools?
yes: 67%
no: 24%
don't know: 9%

Would you allow your child to be around the children of same sex parents?
yes: 68%
no: 24%
don't know: 8%

Do you support allowing same sex couples to adopt children?

yes: 66%
no: 27%
don't know: 7%

Do you support allowing same sex couples to go through a surrogacy procedure?
yes: 64%
no: 29%
don't know: 7%

Do you support allowing gays to give blood?
yes: 63%
no: 25%
don't know: 12%

Do you support the equal distribution of funds to organizations of the gay community?
yes: 66%
no: 24%
don't know: 10%

Should gay pride parades be allowed in Israel?
yes: 34%
no: 40%
in some cities: 20%
don't know: 7%

Do you support promoting Israel as a destination for gay tourism?
yes: 54%
no: 34%
don't know: 12%

Do you support laws that would give equal rights to same sex couples?
yes: 70%
no: 23%
don't know: 7%

If one of your children would announce that they are gay, would you accept their sexual orientation?
yes: 70%
no: 19%
don't know: 11%

[danny]

This Knesset is just the perfect one to pass SSM

Even if a majority of MK's support SSM, you still need a favourable coalition to get it past.

[danny]

Knesset channel poll:

Likud Beitenu: 33
Labour: 17
JH: 15
Yesh Atid: 13
Meretz: 11
Shas: 10
UTJ: 7
Hatnua: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 3

[danny]

Channel 2 poll:

Likud: 33
Labour: 16
Yesh Atid: 14
Jewish Home: 11
Shas: 10
Meretz: 7
The Movement: 7
UTJ: 7
Hadash: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Kadima: 2
Otzma: 2

Are you pleased with the performance of the government?
Yes: 27%
No: 65%

Who is most suitable to be PM?
Bibi: 30%
Herzog: 11%
Livni: 7%
Lieberman: 6%
Bennet: 6%
Lapid: 5%

Amongst people who voted for Shas, who do you think should lead Shas?
Yishai: 50%
Deri: 25%

[danny]

No Hatnuah?

Hatnuah is the movement.

[danny]

Who is still supporting The Movement at this point? What could possibly be their rationale?

People who want to shift the government to the left from within the government, people who think of themselves as centrists but aren't happy with Lapid.

[danny]

A new poll from channel 1:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
Yesh Atid: 13
Jewish Home: 13
Shas: 10
Meretz: 7
UTJ: 7
The Movement: 4
Hadash: 4
Raam-Taal: 4
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 3
Kadima: 2

Who is the most suitable for the role of PM:
Bibi: 43.3%
Herzog: 13.9%
Bennet: 8.1%
Lapid: 3.6%
None of them: 14.5%
Dom't Know/refuse: 16.7%

[danny]

Man, the left in Israel is just really DOA, huh? It's been well over a decade since Labor was in power. Strange to see.

They have enough relevance to be in the current government.

None of the leaders of any of the parties in government would refer to themselves as left wing, and being in government doesn't necessarily mean you are relevant anyway. The lefts real power comes from the supreme court and the media.