Israeli General Election 2013

[danny]

Haaretz poll:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
Kadima: 2
Otzma Leisrael: 2

[danny]

Haaretz poll:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
Kadima: 2
Otzma Leisrael: 2

So are the odds that the coalition essentially doesn't change? LB/JH-NU/Shas/UTJ for a total of 65?

It's possible, but such a coalition would leave Bibi as one of the most left wing members of his own coalition, a situation Bibi usually tries to avoid. He will probably like to have it as leverage, so that he can go to the parties to his left and tell them that if they won't join him than he will just set up a right-religious coalition without them.

[danny]

Shelly today announced she will either be PM or 'Natenyahu's most loyal opposition "

Recent poll reshet B:
Likud - 35
Labour - 18
JH+NU - 18
Shas - 8
Meretz - 7
UTJ - 7
Livni - 6
Otzma Isr. - 6
Hadash - 4
Ra'sm - 4
Balad - 3

Yeah that's a geocartographia poll, their results tend to be very different than everyone else, and I usually try to avoid them.

[danny]

Shelly made an announcement that she won't sit in Bibi's coalition, which caused Lapid and Livni to attack her. If Bibi is willing to keep the Haredim out, than I think a Likud-JH-Lapid-Livni coalition is very possible.

[danny]

New polls.

knesset channel:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 17
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
The Movement: 10
Yesh Atid: 10
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
Otzma Leisrael: 2

Yisrael Hayom:

Likud Beitenu: 34
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 14
Shas: 11
Yesh Atid: 11
The Movement: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2
Am Shalem: 2

[danny]

Lapid has promised not to sit in a right-haredi-Lapid coalition and I think that such a coalition would be unlikely. Then again, politicians often don't keep their promises.

[danny]

Jerusalem Post poll:

Likud Beitenu: 32
Labour: 17
JH-NU: 16
Shas: 10
Yesh Atid: 10
The Movement: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 3
Am Shalem: 3
Kadima: 2

[danny]

Interesting things happening this weekend:
- After Shelly's declaration that Labour will either form the government or head the opposition, Livni says she'll meet with her and try forming a block against Likud.
- Lapid was anticipated to join but of course he took the cowards way out saying he want's to "moderate the next government"

As long as the current coalition combines to over 60 mandates, all this could cause is to force Bibi to continue the current coalition. If Lapid could come in instead of the Haredim, he could change things, so you could call him a coward, but he's not wrong.

- Former head of the Shabak (kinda like MI5) gives a huge interview in which he attacks Barak and Netanyahu as unworthy and motivated by narrow motives. He goes on insisting that they are not the individuals Israel can trust in this delicate times with the Iranian nuclear programme and the Palestinian peace talks.

I expect to see him in the next elections on the list of Labour/some centrist party.

[danny]

Mako poll:

Likud Beitenu: 32
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 16
Shas: 10
Yesh Atid: 10
The Movement: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Otzma: 3
Am Shalem: 2
Balad:2

[danny]

Why has Likud been steadily dropping? They started at 40 and are now at 32... pretty soon they'll be back where they started, below 30.

Bibi is running a bad campaign (as usual) while Bennet is running a great one, and is siphoning off all those Likud voters.

[danny]

A poll about opinions rather than voting intentions shows a right wing majority (55%) compared to the centre (21%) and left (17%). Om the economy it's 33% social-democrat, 40% centrist, 22% capitalist. A majority support both a two state solution and keeping the settlements...
A huge majority oppose relinquishing the Golan (84%).

Link in English

[danny]

poll by Mishal Cham:

Likud Beitenu: 35
Labour: 16
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 11
Yesh Atid: 9
The Movement: 8
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
Kadima: 3
Otzma: 2
Am Shalem: 2
"Arab parties": 10

[danny]

Political ads are on TV now, and the one making the biggest noise is this one from Shas, which drew wide ranging condemnation for its perceived  anti Russian racism.

http://youtu.be/A-auotGWUeM

[danny]

If anyone wants, this person has a channel with ads from different parties subtitled in English:
http://www.youtube.com/user/IsraeliElections2013?feature=watch

Also, it's probably some Israeli thing I'm not aware of, but it looks like the girls at 1:23 in this Hatnuah ad are doing the Gangam Style dance:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RGUE6yW9yjQ#t=82s
XD

No, that's just Gangnam Style, it's big everywhere.

[danny]

Poll from channel 1:

Likud Beitenu- 33
Labour - 16
JH-NU - 15
Shas - 10
Yesh Atid - 10
The Movement - 9
Meretz - 6
UTJ - 5
Raam-Taal - 4
Hadash - 4
Balad -3
Otzma- 3
Kadima - 2

[danny]

Poll from Forbes:

Likud Beitenu- 34
Labour - 17
JH-NU - 14
Yesh Atid - 11
Shas - 9
The Movement - 9
UTJ - 6
Meretz - 5
Raam-Taal - 4
Hadash - 3
Balad -3
Otzma- 3
Kadima - 2

[danny]

I support Israeli construction at  E1, so naturally I support Israeli actions. As for Haaretz, they're full of nonsense, I don't pay them much attention. I imagine HNV will have a very different perspective though.

[danny]

So...(before anyone asks, since KLH is a religious party, this is a right-religious majority over center-left 69-51, but it's dependent on KLH and OLI, both of which Netanyahu would be unlikely to invite into his coalition)...is turnout particularly low among Arab youth? Could some of the more unusual trends (I want to list some, but...really there's nothing not notable in that poll) be explained?

I don't think these polls are good predictors of the future, also, Green Leaf is not left wing, they are libertarian, and would be easily the most right wing economically were they to enter the knesset. Regarding peace/security issues they support a referendum before agreeing to any peace deal.

Here is their platform, it doesn't look left wing at all.

[danny]

Political ads are on TV now, and the one making the biggest noise is this one from Shas, which drew wide ranging condemnation for its perceived  anti Russian racism.

http://youtu.be/A-auotGWUeM

Wow, that is racist.

If you are willing to move to a tribal state, you should be expecting that your tribal membership might be questioned. I would have been enraged if this were happening in any civilized country, but here it seems hilariously appropriate.

Then again, there are these folks:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/24/bnei-menashe-move-to-israel-indian-jews-from-lost-tribe-arrive-in-holy-land-photos_n_2359086.html

Compared to these folks the Russian emigrants are more Semitic by blood, and have practitioners of Judaism much further down the family tree. Seems the Shas stood in the government that admitted them.

The whole point of Shas is to represent the non-white(Ashkenazi) religious people. Naturally, they would have more problem with secular white (and possibly non-Jewish) Russians than the non-askenazi more dark skinned and religious groups you mentioned.

[danny]

Just the endorsement Bibi needed...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tm5Je73bYOY

[danny]

Question regarding Haaretz interview with Dov Khenin:

http://www.haaretz.com/news/israeli-elections-2013/israeli-elections-news-features/mk-dov-khenin-netanyahu-government-is-dangerous-for-israel-1.494332

"Do you support mandatory civil service for those who do not serve in the army? Hadash supports the mandatory draft law for the Druze but if the law is canceled, is not also legitimate for the ultra-Orthodox not to join the army? (Dalia and Eilon)"

What? Hadash supports forcing Druze to serve in the army?

They don't, it's a fail translation from Haaretz, the Hebrew version says the opposite.

[danny]

The deadline for polls has passed, and there was a flood of polls, I don't have time to write them all here but here is someone who compiled most of them:
http://knessetjeremy.com/

[danny]

Election day is finally here

Turnout is 11.4% until 10:00, the highest since 1999 and 1.1% higher than 2009:

[danny]

I'm back from voting, no line at all, so I went right in.

26.7% voted until 12:00, still highest since 1999, now 3.3% more than 2009.

[danny]

Any place to follow the results when they come in, preferably in English?

I imagine all the Israeli news sites will have a result page, bot they haven't posted them yet.