Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[danny]

I was, of course, pretty clear about the 70s and 80s as being the time when Arabs voted for the Zionist parties. Still, I did not insinuate, but stated that the process is, in a very significant sense, continuing. Up until now a sizeable Arab vote went for Hadash, which, though non-Zionist, is a bicommunal party with a notable Jewish core. By forcing Hadash into the Arab coalition, the new electoral law did further the process of communal separation (Dov Khenin's and Avraham Burg's attempts at slowing that  notwithstanding).

I have been quite clear about this before and I am quite clear about this here. What, exactly, was I insinuating?

OK, you used increasing in the present tense. You were not insinuating, you said it outright, I will concede this.

As for Hadash though, they have been an Arab party with a token Jew and an overwhelmingly Arab electorate for a while now. They are just as Arab as parties like Meretz and Labour are Jewish. The fact that they joined with other parties based on their "Arabness" is only proving this, but it isn't something new

[danny]

I don't know if this has been posted already but, has Yesh Atid and Lapid say who they would form a coalition with?

He said that he would prefer Herzog, but didn't rule out Bibi. presumably he could enter into any coalition.

[danny]

There are two other Arab parties on that official site, The Arab List and The Hope For Change, but The Arab List has already withdrawn and supported the Joint List.

number 18 is an arab name (the Hebrew indicates it should be Yunas Vaal).

Jewish names would be 8, 20, 21, 24, 42, maybe 47, 48, 58, 67, 73, 79, 89, 98, 101, 113.

Only number 8 khenin is realistic.

[danny]

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

There is doubt, communism is the antithesis of freedom.

[danny]

There is doubt, communism is the antithesis of freedom.

LOL ...coming from a Likudnik .

I'm not a Likudnik, but saying this is true regardless of your political affiliation, would be reasonable for anyone whom isn't Communist.

My grandparents were communists , they were part of building the kibbutz movement , Rabin's parents were communists .

So what? This doesn't change what Communism is, and I'm glad that both the Kibbutzim and Rabin didn't follow in their ancestors ideology and moved away from Communism.

Bibi "  is the antithesis of freedom " danny , the communists have long gone .
We have replaced them with fascists ............
Bibi, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman.

Now you are just using fascist as some sort of generic insult against right wingers, the same way some American conservatives like to throw around the term Socialist against anyone to their left.

They win this election ......then Yigal Amir and Baruch Goldstein have won and god help us .

This is just fearmongering, and trying to paint anyone on the right as if they are all the same.
Also, you shouldn't count on good to help you. The Communists were right about this part, he doesn't exist.

[danny]

What else is a national homeland good for, if not to get your own ispravnik?

So that no one else can act as an ispravnik over you, a particularly relevant concern when it comes to the Jewish people.

[danny]

Mikado asked this in the other maps thread but it should be here:

Can there be a stable-for-Israel government out of this election that does not contain both Likud and Labor?  Looking at the numbers, I'm having trouble coming up with a Likud government with over 66ish seats, and a government with 61-65 seats is implausible.

Likud can't invite in the Arabs or the fascists, Meretz won't join, and he can have either the Haredi parties or Yesh Atid but not both. There's no obvious Likud coalition that isn't a grand coalition with Labor plus Kulanu, the Haredi, and Jewish Home and maybe Lieberman.

The "fascists" he can't invite is only Marzel himself, the other members of the party are natural partners of Bibi.

A government with 61-65 may be undesirable, but it is plausible and certainly could be created.

A government with both Lapid and the Haredim would be hard, but not impossible.

A grand coalition is something that I'm sure Bibi would like, but only if they don't demand a rotation, and I suspect that this would be the demand.

The basic coalition for Bibi would be Likud+Bennet+Shas+UTJ+Lieberman+Kachlon+Yachad (not including Marzel). Bibi would like something wider, but he could fall back on this if he must.

[danny]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

lol

Polls since the speech show remarkably little change. Seems like people have decided on the speech before it happened.

It's more that Iran isn't an important issue to most people, so it didn't really matter what he said.

[danny]

Polling by Arutz Sheva from the 8th of March has:

Likud (Netanyahu) at 26 seats
Zionist Union (Herzog) at 21 seats
Jewish Home (Bennet) at 13 seats
Yesh Atid (Lapid) at 12 seats
Joint List (Odeh) at 12 seats
Kulanu (Kachlon) at 8 seats
Shas (Deri) at 8 seats
UTJ (Litzman) at 8 seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) at 7 seats
Meretz (Gal-On) at 5 seats
Yachad (Yishai) at 0 seats


I'd obviously take this with a grain of salt as Arutz Sheva is a right-leaning media source.

This poll wasn't done by Arutz Sheva, it was published by i24news, which is not a right wing source. The problem though, is the company actually doing the poll, Geocartograhy, which is trash and regularly gets ridiculous results. you should always ignore Geocartography polls.

[danny]

An example of Geocartography silliness is that they have a poll with the least seats of all for UTJ (4) and the most (10), even though UTJ have a solid base of voters and can barely change the number of voters they get, giving them one of the two numbers would be very strange, giving them both in the same cycle is simply ridiculous.

[danny]

They're not going anywhere (most of them), but they are integrating. it has been 25 years since the big immigration wave.

[danny]

They're not going anywhere (most of them), but they are integrating. it has been 25 years since the big immigration wave.

But the standard of Russianness I tookmwas being born in the USSR. 25 years after migrating these are still very active people. And being integrated should imply greater, not lesser, participation.

But the bulk of USSR born MK's has always been from Russian oriented parties Yisrael Beitenu (or Ba'aliyah earlier). The more Russians integrate the less need there is for parties like this and YB has tried becoming less centred Russians and appeal to others itself.

Without the need for special immigrant parties, the knesset is going back to trending towards more Israeli born Knesset members.

[danny]

I don't know if it counts for much, but The Economist magazine endorsed Herzog.

Bibi’s a bad deal

The prime minister’s failures outweigh his achievements. Israelis should back Yitzhak Herzog.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21646206-prime-ministers-failures-outweigh-his-achievements-israelis-should-back-yitzhak-herzog-bibis

It means about as much as Sarah Silverman endorsing Meretz (not at all).

[danny]

Random guess:

Zionist Union: 25 Seats
Likud: 22 Seats
Joint List (Arab): 13 Seats
Yesh Atid: 12 Seats
The Jewish Home: 11 Seats
Kulanu: 9 Seats
Shas: 8 Seats
UTJ: 6 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu: 5 Seats
Meretz: 5 Seats
Yachad/Otzma: 4 Seats

Zionist Union Coalition: 63 Seats
-Zionist Union
-Yesh Atid
-Meretz
-Joint List
-Shas

The Joint list cant even sit with Meretz in the same coalition, much less all those parties to its right.

[danny]

It'd be genuinely remarkable if Herzog could manage to woo Lapid, Shas/UTJ, Meretz, and Kahlon into one coalition, though it'd be just as remarkable if Netanyahu could both get Kahlon to join him and get Deri and Yishai to play nice together. Grand coalition of Likud, Zionist Union, Kahlon and Lapid seems most likely at this point, but even that seems improbable.

Getting Lapid and the Haredim together is certainly a problem, but Bibi's coalition partners don't have a problem sitting in the same coalition with the others (Deri and Yishai hate each other but I'm sure they will sit in the same coalition).

[danny]

Word is, prepare for heavy turnout. The official election website has crashed (see, Bibi can't even make a silly website!)

Neither could Obama!

So, the polls close at noon Pacific Daylight time?

13:00

[danny]

Neither could Obama!

So, the polls close at noon Pacific Daylight time?

13:00

Thanks!

More proof that I couldn't get a math degree.

I didn't do any calculations myself, I used a website.

[danny]

Tuesday is the most convenient because it give the longest time to prepare for the vote and count it without hitting the weekend. But it doesn't have to be, the 96 elections were on Wednesday and the 84 elections on Monday.

[danny]

Yeah, people might vote in heavier numbers before going to work and after work or during lunch break. Therefore the lines.

Which means Sunday (or holiday) voting is pretty cool, since people are voting more evenly during the day and there is only 1 peak voting time: after lunch.

I guess Sunday (or holiday) voting is also good for getting enough poll workers, unless you use exclusively retirees - which have time any day.

(PS: polling stations in Austria do not close at 1pm, only in the state of Vorarlberg - which is Swiss-oriented)

Election day is a holiday in Israel, so work isn't a problem.

[danny]

Regarding the Arab vote, it was Bibi saying that It's high, but Ahmed Tibi says that it's lower than last time, and I have no way of knowing what the truth is.

[danny]

65.7% vote until 20:00, higher than any year since 1999 again, will probably pass 70% now.

[danny]

Number-based rumours starting to circulate: suggestions of squeeze in favour of the big parties.

No idea of accuracy.

Squeeze in favor or two biggest parties - A la Holland 2010?

Or Israel 2009. And yes those are indeed the rumours, Bennet is sounding particularly panicked.

[danny]

A comparison of the turnout by time for all the elections since 1973:

[danny]

Could someone give a list of the parties sorted by whether they are left/right leaning? i.e.  which ones are likely to form a coalition with each other (and which ones are up for grabs)

Sorry for the noob-ish level of ignorance. I can't keep track of all the party names for the life of me!

Right wing coalition members- Likud, Jewish Home, Yachad
Left Wing coalition members- Zionist Union, Meretz, Yesh Atid (kind of, could join Bibi but would prefer the Zionist Union).
Religious partis that can go for both but would be more natural on the right- Shas, UTJ
Kulanu is can easily fit in both the left and right.
The Joint List- The Arab party that won't be in any coalition.

[danny]

Channel 2 exit poll:
Likud 28
ZU: 27
JL: 13
YA: 12
Kulanu: 9
JH: 8
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
Lieberman: 5

Yishai is out