Meanwhile in Safe D Oregon EV numbers appear to still indicate a massive Democratic/Republican enthusiasm gap that seems favor the Democrats:
Metro PDX----
Dems continue to perform significantly well with EVs in the Democratic strongholds of Multonmah and Washington Counties. Clackamas (The only potential swing Portland County) is currently rolling at (49-36-15 D-R-I) vs RV numbers of (39-33-38) D-R-I. Also, Dems still holding a narrow EV lead in Yamhill County (~20%+ Latino) despite a 4k Rep RV lead... (Also on my flip list)
Mid-Valley---
Marion- Dems curently holding a 2.7k lead in a county where RV numbers are only +0.6k D in one of the largest Latino Counties in the state. Marion continiues to be on my '08 Obama/'12 Romney/ Clinton '16 flip list.
Polk---- Dems hold a 600 vote EV lead in a county with a 1.2k Rep RV lead. Long been on my 2016 flip list (Again Mid-Valley county with a lot of Latinos and some college kids out in Monmouth).
Linn- Should be a Republican stronghold, but Dems outperforming Rep EV vs RV numbers, with a large number of Indies, including many Latinos that appear to be voting at higher numbers than normal.
Benton- College county where most Indies vote Dem, D turnout is +10 over RV, Rep turnout is stagnant vs RV.
Lane- Mix of college, rural, and mill towns. (D) are +3.9% of Ev vs RV, (R) is +0.6% EV/RV.
Coastal Oregon:
Dems still holding on extremely well, even in places like Tillamook and Columbia Counties where the mythical Reagan Democrats might miraculously resurrect themselves from the graves....
Southern Oregon
Douglas County--- Reps outperforming EV vs RV numbers in classic Timber Country, as I long suspected. FWIW (This county was a 47-53% Bush Sr County in '88) and swung hard Republican as a result of the Oregon Timber Wars of the late '80s/ early '90s.
Coos County--- Dems still hold an EV lead of 700 votes, despite a Rep 800 vote RV lead, in what used to be one of the most Democratic Counties in the state, going back to the New Deal and the days of the Union.... I would not be surprised to see Coos come back home after several decades in the wilderness, although I still have it as a Lean Trump county.
Jackson County--- Reps lead RV by 2.7k here and today managed for the first time in EV to eke out a narrow (600) vote lead. All being said, this is a county where Indies tend to Lean D in GEs, and is on my flip list as an Obama '08/Romney '12/Clinton '16 County.
Josephine County--- enough said. See notes on Douglas County above, but throw in a weird Cali Middle-Class Tax revolt movement from the late '70s that doesn't believe that the county should pay for cops, and yeah.... positive EV/RV numbers for Trump here.
Central/Eastern Oregon:
Haven't spent too much time looking on the data out here but....
Deschutes County--- Reps lead +2.5% on RVs, but Dems actually lead in EV, in one of the wealthiest counties in Oregon home to a lot of educated Cali retirees... Also on my list of Obama '08/Romney '12/ Clinton '16 flip counties.
Wasco County--- Blue Collar County on the Columbia River over the Cascade Mountain Range, that used to sometimes vote Dem/Rep for Pres.... Although it didn't vote for Obama in '08 RV numbers are +3.5% D and EV number are +6.0 D. Likely coming back home as a result of the Trump train and a growing Latino population in the Gorge, and most Oregonians aren't haters...
Umatilla & Malheur Counties---- These counties are a trip, since on the one hand you have traditionally heavily Republican parts of the state, but on the other hand you also have a large and rapidly growing Latino population, as well as an extremely sizeable Mormon population...
What's interesting here isn't as much the (D) and (R) numbers, but actually not only the huge number of independent voters that appear to be voting at much higher levels of Indies than most parts of the state....
Still curious about this, but suspect that many Indie voters in these counties are Latinos, and am extremely interested in looking at county level results after the final votes are in to see if there is a significant Republican defection in some of these counties that are >10% Mormon as well.
Great summary, but I just need to point out that McCain won Deschutes County in 08, even if barely.
