Democrats interested in the Presidential race should be happy. Winning Latino and Asian voters just got easier. For Democrats who were praying for the miracle that immigration reform would somehow pass the House during this Congress, their hopes have been dashed.
...or the next Congress. Or the next. Or even the one after that. Cantor's loss will seriously discourage bipartisan discussion on the issue and could derail such reform. For the rest of the decade.
That's fine. The only way anything ever gets done is when there is a Democratic House, Democratic President, and 60 Democratic Senators. Cantor's absence or presence isn't going to change that, but another Tea Party loon in Congress makes the march to supermajority easier.
If Eric Cantor was making serious noises about immigration reform--and he was--there was at least a decent chance of passing a compromise version of the Dream Act in the next congress. Any Republican with an ounce of pragmatism--includingg even the arch-conservative Cantor--realizes that it's necessary to recoup the mamoth losses among Hispanic and Asian voters since 2004, but isn't likely to undermine base turnout against Hillary substantially.
If you so fully believe sacrificing meaningful immigration reform is a worthwhile sacrifice so Democrats can continue dominating among Hispanic and Asian voters, then I'm happy for you.
To say that there was a "decent chance" of the Dream Act passing had Cantor been reelected is stretching it. I would call it more of a "very low" chance given the nonstop excuses, foot-dragging and backpedaling we have seen from the the GOP House Leadership over the past 18 months on this issue. And they were going to pass it in the next Congress under the pressure of the presidential cycle and their wingnut base? Possible but I find it most unlikely. Too many House Republicans have no motivation to pass immigration reform. In their custom drawn conservative cocoon districts with a mostly white electorate their only worry is a Tea Party challenge.
At any rate, Cantor lost, so the chances are now zero. Which is too bad, but from a political standpoint Democrats are fine playing the hand we've been dealt by the GOP.
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