India 2014

[Хahar 🤔]

Is there any reliable political polling in India? My understanding was that pretty much all polling was unreliable at best and total crap at worst.

Accurate polling requires a certain level of infrastructure which does not exist in India.

I'll repost what I had to say about the BJP potentially choosing Modi as its PM candidate:

Even in 2009 it seemed clear that the Congress was very likely to win in 2014, because the BJP's coalition had eroded to such an extent that it was no longer really feasible for it to win anything close to a majority. In the years since, the BJP has not exactly attempted to broaden its coalition, and if it nominates a fascist for PM (as it seems will be the case) it will mean giving up entirely on any hope of winning the election outright.

Going forward, I think we'll see a move away from the two-party Congress/BJP system that has existed at the Centre for the last fifteen years towards a dominant-party system of the kind that existed between the fall of the Janata Party and the victory of the BJP; while there might be governments formed without the Congress, they will frequently be unstable and even when stable will not be dominated by a single party. If there is to be a significant non-BJP opposition, it remains to be seen whence its nexus will arise; the obvious answer is UP, but we all remember the way the Mayawati-for-PM business fizzled out in 2009.

[Хahar 🤔]

Bihar and especially UP are dominated by minority politics; BSP and SP in UP and JD(U) and RJD in Bihar all draw their primary support from minority groups such as backward castes and Muslims. Naturally, these are not groups to whom the Hindutva message appeals, and the choice of Modi will make it particularly difficult for the BJP to get the allies it needs to win seats in those areas.

[Хahar 🤔]

BSP expels MP for defending Modi's "puppy" remarks

[Хahar 🤔]

All of this Hindutva talk seems to me to be a natural reaction on the part of the RSS to the decline of the BJP over the last decade. The BJP now only forms a few state governments and it has been shut out at the Center for quite some time; it would be natural for an RSS partisan to blame this on the lasting effects of the Vajpayee strategy concerning Hindutva.

[Хahar 🤔]

One wonders if the BJP will encounter the same issues with translating an increase in votes to an increase in seats in Karnataka.

[Хahar 🤔]

One wonders if the BJP will encounter the same issues with translating an increase in votes to an increase in seats in Karnataka.

Well, if we are talking about increase in votes for BJP in Karnataka relative to 2009 then for sure it will translate into more seats.  BJP got 19 out of 28 seats with 41% of the vote in 2009 so for sure BJP has crossed the threshold to get seats on its unlike WB.  Of course most likely BJP will lose vote share in 2014 relative to 2009 and will be in the high single digits in terms of seats.  CNN-IBN poll will cover Karnataka so we will see what their poll comes up with.  I am pretty sure it will come up with something like INC 35%, BJP 20%, JD(S) 15%. 

Oh, of course. I meant an increase in votes relative to the start of the campaign.

[Хahar 🤔]

Lalu Prasad has been expelled from Lok Sabha.

[Хahar 🤔]

Whether the trains run on time is basically beside the point.

[Хahar 🤔]

Also, for those of you who seem to think India treats its religious minorities so horribly, would you be happy if they got the same type of treatment religious minorities get in muslim countries surrounding India?

The fact that that's not the case is what makes India better than those surrounding countries. I was unaware that the goal was to be just like Pakistan.

[Хahar 🤔]

So this thread is another case of hyperbolic ag basically freaking out that the world is coming to an end. Loads of these lately.

Not at all. He's quite correct in this instance.

No, he hasn't provided any substantial evidence to prove that point. He has basically just reverted to the "this guy did some horrible things 10 years ago like your average Indian politician so he shouldn't be elected" viewpoint.

I was unaware that the average Indian politician instigated mass pogroms.

[Хahar 🤔]

I haven't really been following this, and I'm insufficiently familiar with the election process that this may be totally impossible, but does the INC have any chance of pulling out a 2004-style upset?

Also, great map, Al!

It's certainly possible. At this point my guess would be that we'll see a hung parliament of some kind; the BJP obviously can't win enough seats to form government by itself and whether it can find enough allies is very much up in the air.