Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.
If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"
It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.
There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.
Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"
In some cases they do break heavily toward one candidate. Stuck in the low 30s the best Trump could do is probably scrape 40%. But of course you all think he's winning California because Biden hasn't cracked 60% in any polling there so talking to Trump supporters is like talking to a brick wall. DC is on the table for you people.
The more realistic concern is something like Republicans holding in the 13th and 22nd if Trump performs well enough although Valadao is not endorsing him.
