2011 State Elections in Germany

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Looks like big SPD/Green mobilization... and there's no real for CDU/FDP supporters to be mobilized, except if they're mobilized against their parties in a protest vote.

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Of course that doesn't mean they all changed their opinion.

The problem is that the pro-nuclear folks don't really have a party to vote for? Or maybe FDP, because of the Brüderle remarks.

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Current ARD seat projection

Greens/SPD 70
CDU/FDP 69

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The seat projections of ARD and ZDF have now become identical, Greens and SPD are tied

CDU 61
Greens 36
SPD 36
FDP 8

Greens/SPD 72
CDU/FDP 69

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Well... congratulations to Winfried Kretschmann for making history today. Baden-Württemberg's first non-CDU minister-president since 1953 and Germany's first Green minister-president ever.

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Mappus has resigned. So has Brüderle - as state FDP chair, not as minister.

In the FDP, there are calls for resignation towards pretty much everyone in the party leadership. Especially Brüderle, Pieper, Homburger.

Westerwelle hasn't ruled out any such resignations today... except for himself of course.

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Two thoughts on the Left's results:

- Nuclear energy dominated the election and the Left Party isn't preceived as having much of a position on the issue. This rendered the party irrelevant here. At least the CDU was perceived as something, even if it is being (formerly) pro-nuclear. So, basically what Lewis said.

- Both BaWü and RLP are traditionally seen as conservative states (despite the fact that RLP has been governed by the SPD for the past 16 years, but that's another issue to discuss). Bavaria aside, it was almost to be expected that these states are the toughest to crack for the Left. On the other hand, the Left won 6.4% in Hamburg last month, same result as three years before. (As a sidenote, the Greens also managed to win 24% in Baden-Württemberg because their leader happens to be a member of the Central Committee of German Catholics.)

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Just for the heck of it, I'm posting election.de's direct seat winner maps for Hamburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate.

Blue - CDU
Red - SPD
Pink - Left
Green - Green

Darker color: > 50%
Lighter color: < 50%

Hamburg:


Saxony-Anhalt:


Baden-Württemberg:


Rhineland-Palatinate:

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Left:

ÖDP

Certainly debatable. Enviromentalism aside, you could make the case that it is more right-wing than left-wing.

The party was originally founded by a former CDU Bundestag representative who had been with the Greens for a brief period until he decided that they are too left-wing for him.  The party's current federal chairman also happens to be a former CSU member.

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Guido Westerwelle is probably gonna announce his resignation as party chairman (not foreign minister) on monday.

Potential successors are FDP secretary-general Christian Lindner, federal minister of health Philipp Rösler, and federal minister of justice Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger.

Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger is the only cool choice, and that's why I doubt that it would happen. The FDP she once joined ceased to exist a long time ago anyway.

Most pundits are betting on Rösler right now (Lindner too young, Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger too left-wing). This would also present an opportunity to get rid of Brüderle by making Rösler minister of economics too.

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In addition to his youth, Lindner kind of made himself unpopular in his still largely pro-nuclear party by taking an anti-nuclear stance recently though.

Of course, there's no ideal solution. I'm not convinced yet that either Rösler or Lindner could significantly change the desolate state of their party. Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger is the only potential chair(wo)man who would personify a real change for the FDP. But like I said, that's also the reason why it probably won't happen.

The FDP is also in a situation where the next chairman could simply win by default though.

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How does Hare-Niemeyer system work ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_remainder_method

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Why are they polling NRW ?

Possibility of an early election there this year.

I'd say chances are still somehwat below 50% though.

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Decision for the new FDP chairman postoned till tomorrow.

This also means that the great back-stabbing didn't occur so far. Apparently, Philipp Rösler only wants to take over the chairmanship if he also gets a more important cabinet post than his current Health ministry. As a result, someone else would almost certainly get the shaft... most likely either Brüderle or Westerwelle. Both men cling to there cabinet jobs like drowning men though.

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The fact that Rösler is stuck at Health is pretty pathetic, actually. How long is he gonna survive as chairman anyway? Till the Berlin state election in September?

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Why are they polling NRW ?

Possibility of an early election there this year.

Why, there was a coalition breakup ?

No, SPD/Green minority government which had problems getting its budget approved.

The CDU stopped pushing for early elections though because they would be annihilated right now.

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National Infratest poll

CDU/CSU 33%
SPD 27%
Greens 23%
Left 7%
FDP 5%

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Well, Forsa polls are always outliers.

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New Emnid poll for Berlin

Greens 29%
SPD 27%
CDU 20%
Left 14%
FDP 3%

Majority for Greens/SPD, Greens/CDU, or SPD/CDU.

The CDU could really become the kingmaker in such a situation, provided that the SPD would be unwilling to give up the mayorship.

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Finally, a new Bremen poll by Emnid for Focus:

37% [+0.3] SPD
24% [+7.5] Greens
22%  [-3.6] CDU
  7%  [-1.4] Left
  4%  [-2.0] FDP
  6%  [-0.8] Others

2/3 majority for SPD-Greens.

Green/CDU also have a majority with those numbers.

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Germany

31% CDU/CSU
28% Greens
21% SPD
  8% Left
  4% FDP
  8% Others

Greens over SPD ? Looks like Canada isn't the only country experiencing a realignment...

Why the hell do they poll BW ?

It's a Forsa poll, though. Any other pollster has the Greens at 23% or 24% and the SPD between 24% and 27%.

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Honestly guys, I'd vote left-wing in Germany too, but I wish the French, Italian, American, Canadian rights were worth half of the CDU.

A party devoid of any clear ideology except the will of its leader to remain at the top of the government?

For better or worse, the CDU ceased to exist as a conservative party eleven years. Since then, its main function was to elevate to Angela Merkel to the Chancellorship and keep her there. Which means it will be interesting to see what happens post-Merkel... so in ten years or so.

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How is Merkel not being a conservative? Maybe she's more of a Heath than a Thatcher (say), but that's not the same as...

First of all, it appears as if Merkel has not many political convictions that are truly her own. She is often cited as a moderator. She is moderatering between different factions within her own party, she was moderating between CDU and SPD during the Grand coalition and so on. However, her own opinions often remain a total mystery.

Throughout her career she has often done a 180 when it suits her needs. After the famous Leipzig convention in 2003 and its decisions regarding economic and fiscal issues she was often hailed as the new Maggie Thatcher. When she came to power in 2005 she began to govern as a quasi-social democrat, something she retained for the most part under the CDU/FDP coalition since '09. Prior to Fukushima she was considered one of the most staunchly pro-nuclear politicians in Germany, since Fukushima she seemingly tries to outrun the Greens in shutting nuclear power plants.

She's 33% conservative, 33% social democrat, and 33% Mitt Romney.

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Any polls on SPD Chancellor candidates nationally?  2013's not that far away.  

Found a poll from April.

SPD parliamentary leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier 37%
Former finance minister Peer Steinbrück 26%
SPD federal chairman Sigmar Gabriel 13%

SPD voters only:
Frank-Walter Steinmeier 49%
Peer Steinbrück 27%
Sigmar Gabriel 13%

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/steinbrueck-nur-bei-rentnern-beliebter-als-steinmeier/4102106.html


Not that surprising to me. Steinmeier has a very "presidential" image (albeit a tad boring, then again he's also a centrist), while Gabriel often comes across as both clueless and aimless. Steinmeier sounds and looks like a Chancellor. Gabriel appears as if he has no idea what he's doing... and the thing is, he probably doesn't. Also, the fact that Steinmeier saved his wife's life by giving her one of his kidneys provided him with a human touch that makes him look a bit less robotic.

In any case, after Guttenberg's self-obliteration and Merkel's Fukushima flip-flop, Steinmeier has now become Germany's most popular politician, as evidenced by whis week's Politbarometer poll.

And Steinbrück... uh, probably popular among more conservative voters, but it remains to be seen whether the SPD's base could warm up to him. Biggest advantage: His stint as finance minister was usually regarded a successful one and left him with an image of comptence and experience.