TX-SEN: True to Form

[The Mikado]

I don't see him getting closer than 6 or 7 points of Cruz even in the best case, and that's factoring in Cruz's...um...lack of charm?

Something like 52-46 is about the most generous thing I can imagine right now, especially with the ticket led by Abbott cruising to a 25 point plus reelection.

[The Mikado]

Siren is basically right. O'Rourke isn't going to win...but winning isn't the point of this exercise this time. If he holds Cruz to a 6-8 point win, that's huge by itself and a sign that Texas statewide officials can no longer cruise comfortably to reelection but have to actually work for it. There's a big difference between a Texas where Romney wins by 17 and a Texas where Trump wins by 9.

[The Mikado]

I think the most likely outcome is Cruz winning by somewhere between 5 and 8 points, maybe closer to the low end of that spectrum. Something like 51-46 would be unsurprising for this race and would be the closest statewide race in TX since 2002.

[The Mikado]

I will say it's super-weird that I haven't seen a single yardsign or bumper sticker for Lyin' Ted even when driving around really Republican areas. Every GOP sign is either for Trump, House candidates, or some local judge.

[The Mikado]

Beto losing by >10 would qualify as surprising. Or Cruz tying with Hispanics.

(Yes I'm prepared for the worst.)

Cruz only beat a nobody who didn't campaign by 16 points, in a relatively neutral year when TX was considerably more Republican than it currently is. Cruz isn't beating an actual opponent who is matching his fundraising and campaigning all over the state by 10+ this year.

I don't think Beto wins, but I have his performance range at -6 +-2...that is to say, I think he loses by somewhere between 4 (in a phenomenal Democratic night) and 8 points, and I expect the result to be right around losing by 6.

[The Mikado]

Well TX-03 is a open seat, so no surprise you won't see incumbent signs.

The preceding poster meant that one of the Dems in the runoff in TX-03, Sam Johnson (who just lost), shared the same name as the many-term GOP incumbent there, Sam Johnson, who is retiring this year.

[The Mikado]

I will say it's super-weird that I haven't seen a single yardsign or bumper sticker for Lyin' Ted even when driving around really Republican areas. Every GOP sign is either for Trump, House candidates, or some local judge.

Why are signs in yards in May an important fact.

In Arkansas we take down the yard signs after the primary.  We put them back up in September.

Do they do it different in Texas?

No, but they had a bunch of signs up due to the May primary runoff.

[The Mikado]

Lol at people saying “but Clinton won it 1992!”


What would those same people say to someone in 2004 who said “but Reagan won California in ‘84?”

Roughly the same time elapsed.....

W actually thought he could win CA in 2000 (not 2004, obviously, but still)

[The Mikado]

I'm betting Trump still calls him "Lyin' Ted" on stage while endorsing him.

"I have no greater supporter in the Senate than my friend Lyin' Ted Cruz. Lyin' Ted has always had my back." Etc.

[The Mikado]

I could rewrite this attack on California (the land of fruits and nuts,,) better than Cruz.

Even in Texas, in 2018 blatant, raw homophobia isn't the winning move. You have to be subtle and talk about "elitist outside agitators trying to undermine our way of life" rather than using blatant slurs like fruits.

[The Mikado]

One of my friends walked up to me today said they are turning 18 in a month, and they are going to register to vote and pull the lever for Beto, so that made my day.

Please remind them there are no actual levers involved, and to not bend or pull the paper sheet that needs to go through the Scantron.

[The Mikado]

Beto was interviewed on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert last night.

He did all right, I guess. He's very telegenic and came off as sort of adorkable in the first few minutes. That said, he also seemed kinda nervous and snapped into what I assume is his stump speech for most of the interview. He delivered his lines well but seemed like a garden variety politician to my ear. Maybe people from Texas would respond to this sort of thing better?

Going on a liberal elite show, great strategy. Beto gonna lose and Atlas will be the only place even moderately surprised.

Since when is The Late Show an "elite" program? It's been a consistently highly rated network show for like 30 years now. Draws ~4 million viewers a night. There's nothing elite about late night network comedy (this feels insanely obvious).

[The Mikado]

Beto was interviewed on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert last night.

O'Rourke said on the show (at 5:34) that "they" (whoever that is) traveled all 254 counties of Texas.
Is that even possible, or is it just a saying?

O'Rourke's campaign absolutely has visited all 254 counties. It's something you can do when you're running in one state for a year and a half.

A lot of West Texas counties are, like, one town of under a thousand people separated 20-25 miles from the next one, so you can hit quite a few of them on one bus trip.

[The Mikado]

After today’s news, I wonder which is more damaging for Cruz.
a) Voting for Kavanaugh and alienating independents, women in particular.
b) Voting against Kavanaugh to try and save face back home, cutting into the MAGA base.

I know this is a hypothetical given the current unknowns about the Kavanaugh confirmation, but Cruz is bound to be asked about it at the debates. Beto can just say that he opposes Kavanaugh, but Cruz has a tightrope to walk.

I’m sorry if this seems to be in bad taste, but it’s going to be a potentially important factor over the next few weeks. Given Kavanaugh’s historic unpopularity, even prior to the allegations this could be big with swingy suburban Romney Clinton voters.

Not just the #MAGA base but your generic, cookie-cutter movement conservatives who are all gung-ho about issues like abortion, religious freedom laws, etc.

I think the optimal thing for Republicans/Cruz could be:

1) Immediately pull Kavanaugh's nomination.
2) Trump announces that he is nominating Ted Cruz to the Supreme Court, and hearings will begin in a week or two.
3) If still possible (not sure if that is the case under Texas law or not), Cruz is replaced on the ballot by some other Texas Republican who is much more popular than he is. If not, then Cruz and Abbott make a joint announcement that if Cruz is re-elected, he will immediately resign and Abbott will appoint insert-more-popular-Texas-Republican-here to fill the seat. So effectively Cruz is replaced on the ballot by that other more popular Texas Republican.
4) Cruz wins the election, helped by the fact that voters know it will not be him that actually serves out the term.
5) Cruz is confirmed and goes to the Supreme Court, resigns from the Senate, and the other TX Republican takes over his Senate seat.

Many Senators would also be very happy with this arrangement because it would mean Ted Cruz would be out of the Senate and they would not have to deal with him any more, since everyone hates him.

Given how much Ted Cruz's colleagues in the Senate dislike him, he might be coasting for a unanimous confirmation to the SCOTUS just to get him out of the Senate.

[The Mikado]

Democrats should run ads featuring all the attacks that Trump has ever made on Cruz.

That might backfire cause Trump has a very high approval rating in Texas

Not really. Abbott does, though.

[The Mikado]

Watching tonight, at least at first.

[The Mikado]

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/27/beto-orourke-ted-cruz-president-2020-senate-race-texas/

Why would Cruz even say this? There's almost no chance he runs in 2020, and if he does, there will have to had been such a huge political development that he could easily explain away this comment.

Maybe he's been lined up to succeed Sessions? Just a thought.

Cruz being delusional enough to think that he could get AG (or the next SCOTUS vacancy?) is just about the only way he'd plan on leaving before his term was up, but it's insane to say it out loud because Trump is not someone inclined to take these things that way and might well take it as a signal that Cruz plans to primary him.

[The Mikado]

He'll probably keep it.

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Nope. Vast majority of it comes from safe blue seats in the east trying to flip Texas because they hate Texas and Cruz. I mean it's a strategy, but yeah. Better they keep spending it there than elsewhere where it might actually turn the tide.

This is factually inaccurate.

https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/geography?cid=N00033540&cycle=2018

67.6% of O'Rourke's money this cycle has come from Texas. The list of top zip codes donations have come from include 0 out of state zip codes.

78703 (Austin, TX)   $359,275
78746 (Austin, TX)   $276,617
77019 (Houston, TX)   $268,034
79912 (El Paso, TX)   $242,133
77005 (Houston, TX)   $238,715
77024 (Houston, TX)   $220,105
79902 (El Paso, TX)   $204,499
78731 (Austin, TX)   $189,675
75225 (Dallas, TX)   $179,636
75209 (Dallas, TX)   $174,901

EDIT: while we're at it, donations by top metro areas:

HOUSTON   $2,264,477
DALLAS   $2,136,820
AUSTIN-SAN MARCOS   $2,067,728
NEW YORK   $950,859
EL PASO   $711,561

O'Rourke's raised nearly as much from El Paso as he has from NYC.

[The Mikado]

i thought republicans in the south, even incumbents, tend to run behind the presidential numbers. Why shouldn't Cruz run behind Trump and, while still winning, get 51% or so?

5% isn't voting third party here like 2016 presidential. 2-3% tops. Trump 52-Clinton 43 could lead to, say, Cruz 52-O'Rourke 46 and actually be a significant Dem improvement (down 6 rather than 9).

[The Mikado]

Its flown somewhat under the radar how vulnerable the TX House is to a flip. Still a longshot, but the gerrymander is built to survive only a fairly small rise in Democratic turnout.

Flip seems nearly impossible, but Dems could well pick up 10+ seats. (20 pickups needed to flip the state house)

[The Mikado]

O'Rourke will get 45-46% of the Vote and that isn't good enough to win Texas.

Obviously that won't win it, but it would be one of the best results a Democrat has gotten in Texas this century I'm pretty sure, if not THE best.

Current record for "closest statewide TX race in the 21st century" is 2002 Lt. Governor.

Dewhurst (R) 51.8
Sharp (D) 46.0

So...there is a solid chance that Beto ends up with the best result for a 21st century Democrat in Texas, and if he doesn't, he'll end up narrowly in second to that.

EDIT:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=48&year=2002&f=0&off=6&elect=0

This is Dewhurst/Sharp 2002. Imagine if Cruz/O'Rourke comes to that same 5.8% margin. The map would look so different in just 16 years. Sharp didn't carry Harris County! He won Dallas County by 3 points!

[The Mikado]

My point was that this "different era" was just 16 years ago and that that 2002 Texas map far more resembles one from the 1970s or 1980s than a map of the 2010s, even, like, 2012 Presidential.

[The Mikado]

To be satisfied, I'm hoping for the final result to be something like Cruz+11. We need to show improvement from Trump's 2016 performance.

Again: did you forget that a few weeks ago, you were pretending to be a liberal who wanted Dems to vote Republican in order to move the Democrats to the left?

Not at all, you remember incorrectly. I was playing Doubles Advocate. I was offering hypothetical reasons for why socialists, communists, anarchists, etc should vote GOP. I believe there is a legitimate reason for ANYONE in the USA to vote GOP.

even Hillary Clinton has legitimate reasons to vote GOP.

Doubles Advocate

It's a drinking game. You haven't heard of it? Played very similarly to Devil's Triangle.

[The Mikado]

Dallas Morning News endorses O'Rourke, for whatever that's worth (Not much, of course, as no one cares about endorsements anymore). DMN is traditionally a very Republican newspaper.

[The Mikado]

In the likely event he loses narrowly, I hope Beto turns around and runs for President ASAP. We need someone magical to defeat Trump and I don't think any of the senators making a move has what it takes.

Beto is soo overated. He is nowhere near qualified enough to be Commander of Chief.

Three term Congressman isn't a ton, but it's not nothing, and maybe it's time we get away from viewing really long resumes as a plus for President.