Predict the Senate vote on the "motion to proceed" on AHCA

[The Mikado]

If the bill goes forward unamended? Something like 52-48 against.

McConnell needs to make changes to buy out some holdouts. Murkowski, being a Murkowski, will need a Polar Payout, a big chunk of cash for especially-hard-hit Alaska.

[The Mikado]

And...

Phil Mattingly‏
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Behind closed doors, Leader McConnell has told his conference he will delay the health care vote - wants to give them time to get to yes.

[The Mikado]

This is a big deal. After all McConnell's talk about wanting this done this week, he's delaying until the week of July 10th at the earliest.

[The Mikado]

This is a big deal. After all McConnell's talk about wanting this done this week, he's delaying until the week of July 10th at the earliest.

A big deal in what way? Good news because the bill is facing more opposition than planned, or bad news because it shows McConnell really wants it to pass?

Both, I guess...?

Between that and this:

Senator Rand Paul‏
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Just came from WH. @realDonaldTrump is open to making bill better. Is Senate leadership?


Sounds like the White House is open to having the Senate start from scratch and rewrite the bill to address some dissident Senators' complaints. If they're catering to Rand Paul, it means that they've already written off Heller and Collins, but that's a dangerous game because they can't lose anyone else.

By the way, I have a hunch, based on a preexisting pattern, that Senate Bill 2.0 will come back with a scoring saying that 21 million Americans will lose insurance. If House Bill 1 said 24 million, House Bill 2 said 23 million, and Senate Bill 1 said 22 million, 21 million seems a safe prediction for this new draft.

[The Mikado]

At this rate, how much time do they have to do Taxes or anything else?

They need to pass a budget by September 30th, so if Health Care takes up all of July and the budget takes up September, they'd need to push taxes into late 2017 or 2018.

[The Mikado]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republican-health-care-bill-mitch-mcconnell-trump-239998

Mitch McConnell playing his trump card against Trump and rebel Senators:

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McConnell is threatening the most dire threat he can imagine: compromise and cooperation with Democrats.